Wimbledon Expert Picks | Best Bets for Hurkacz vs Musetti & Shapovalov vs Broady (Friday, July 7)

Wimbledon Expert Picks | Best Bets for Hurkacz vs Musetti & Shapovalov vs Broady (Friday, July 7) article feature image

Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images. Pictured: Hubert Hurkacz

Two 2021 Wimbledon semifinalists are in action on Friday in the third round of the Championships. Hubert Hurkacz will take on Italian Lorenzo Musetti in a clash between two top-20 seeds.

Meanwhile, Denis Shapovalov will look to stop Cinderella story and hometown favorite Liam Broady in his tracks.

Dive in below to see how I'm betting both of these matches.

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Wimbledon Expert Picks

Hubert Hurkacz (-162) vs Lorenzo Musetti (+134)

7:15 a.m. ET

On paper, the battle between No. 14-seeded Lorenzo Musetti and No. 17-seeded Hubert Hurkacz looks like one of the more intriguing third-round matches at Wimbledon.

But if you dig deeper, this duel favors Hurkacz, both straight up and against the spread.

Musetti hasn’t dropped a set in two matches thus far in London, but both of his opponents — Jaume Munar and Juan Pablo Varillas — are much more comfortable on clay. Also, the Italian isn’t particularly experienced on grass, as he owns a 4-6 record in his career on the surface.

Before this week, Musetti didn’t post a main-draw ATP win at Wimbledon in two tries. And while he owns a 2-1 advantage over Hurkacz head-to-head, he failed to beat the 26-year old at Wimbledon back in 2021, losing in straight sets.

Meanwhile, Hurkacz has a 17-11 record on grass courts for his career — including one ATP title — and he also reached the semis at this Grand Slam in 2021, defeating Roger Federer and Daniil Medvedev in the process.

Ultimately, I think Hurkacz’s ability to win quick points on serve will be too much for Musetti to handle. Hurkacz is third overall in Serve Rating on grass over the last 52 weeks and is second in the same category regardless of surface.

Expect Musetti to have limited chances to break serve and potentially lose in straight sets.

Pick:Hubert Hurkacz -2.5 games (-112 via FanDuel)

Denis Shapovalov (-295) vs Liam Broady (+235)

9:15 a.m. ET

If you follow my write-ups, you know I love to fade players coming off massive wins, especially career-best victories in Grand Slams.

Well, Broady just defeated Casper Ruud in five sets to reach the third round in London. It’s the second straight year the Brit has appeared in this particular round at Wimbledon — last year he toppled Diego Schwartzman in a four-set thriller.

But like 2022, I’m expecting the 29-year old to bow out here.

Facing 2021 Wimbledon semifinalist Denis Shapovalov one day after earning the biggest win of his life — in five sets nonetheless — is a tall task for Broady.

I don’t love backing Shapovalov — especially in majors — given his volatility, but his power and dynamic forehand will give him a leg up in this one.

And if he serves as effectively as he did against Gregoire Barrere in Round 2 — 18 aces, 85% win % on his first serve — then this could be a quick match in favor of the Canadian.

It was Broady’s day to shine yesterday, but it’s Shapovalov’s time to beat Broady for the third time in his career on grass. And in the process, I expect him to cover the 4.5-game spread.

Pick:Denis Shapovalov -4.5 games (-125 via FanDuel)

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