2024 Australian Open Odds, Picks | Wozniacki vs Timofeeva, Sabalenka vs Fruhvirtova
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Aryna Sabalenka.
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The Australian Open has featuring incredible tennis so far and the second round begins on Tuesday!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups —Wozniacki vs Timofeeva and Sabalenka vs Fruhvirtova.
Read on for my 2024 Australian Open odds and picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Australian Open Odds, Picks
Caroline Wozniacki (-320) vs Maria Timofeeva (+250)
7 p.m. ET
Caroline Wozniacki defeated Magda Linette via retirement, beating the Pole 6-2, 2-0 (ret.) in the opening round. Wozniacki won 61% of her service points and was only broken once. In addition, the Dane won an incredible 65% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Wozniacki, who won the Australian Open in 2018, is now an impressive 4591-181 on hard as a professional. After returning from maternity leave last season, Wozniacki went 4-3 on the surface. Wozniacki's game is built around her fitness and consistent depth. The Dane is quick, anticipates well and displays excellent defense. Wozniacki's counterpunching skills are also strong and she can play offense from her backhand wing, as well.
However, Wozniacki lacks service power and her forehand can break down.
Maria Timofeeva took down Alize Cornet 6-2, 6-4 to kick off her Australian Open campaign. Timofeeva won 63% of her service points, only getting broken once. The Russian also 49% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
The 20 year old Russian was an impressive 20-11 on hard courts last year, going 104-50 for her career. Timofeeva has a heavy, powerful forehand that she hits with decent consistency. She positions herself well, standing as far up in the court as she can, even though she doesn't have overwhelming power. Timofeeva spreads the court effectively and has a high tennis IQ.
But, the Russian struggles in cat-and-mouse points, she's not totally comfortable moving forward and her backhand is a liability.
While Timofeeva can play decent offense with her forehand, she doesn't have the overwhelming power that can hit through Wozniacki's excellent defense during baseline exchanges.
And Timofeeva doesn't have a huge first serve, which should allow Wozniacki to get plenty of serves back into play.
At the same time, the Russian isn't as consistent as Wozniacki either. Woznaicki should extend rallies, bait Timofeeva into overhitting and use her experience to get her into backhand-to-backhand rallies, in which the Dane has the big edge.
Not to mention, as a past champion, Wozniacki is extremely comfortable playing in Melbourne.
Pick: Timofeeva to NOT win a set (-110 via FanDuel)
Aryna Sabalenka (-2300) vs Brenda Fruhvirtova (+1500)
Sunday, 3 a.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka destroyed Ella Seidel 6-0, 6-1 in the first round. Sabalenka won 70% of her service points and didn't face a break point. The Belarusian also won an astonishing 66% of return points, breaking five times.
Sabalenka, who won the Australian Open last season, has a strong 267-114 record on hard as a professional, having gone 35-9 in 2023. Sabalenka has a huge first serve, finishing last year in the top-five in aces, percentage of 1st-serve points won, service points won and service games won. The Belarusian also has overwhelming power from the baseline, positioning herself well and forcing her opponents to be reactive, as opposed to proactive.
With that said, the Belarusian can become inconsistent, although less often than previously.
Brenda Fruhvirtova qualified for the Australian Open and beat Ana Bogdan 2-6, 6-4, 6-3 in her first main-draw match. Fruhvirtova won 60% of her service points, getting broken four times. In addition, the Czech won 41% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
The 16 year old Fruhvirtova has an impressive 20-8 record on hard for her career. She went 8-4 on hard last season. The Czech is quick and showcases excellent consistency. Her variety is strong, she has a high tennis IQ and she's comfortable in extended rallies.
However, Fruhvirtova lacks power, both on serve and from the baseline, leaving her vulnerable against high-level power players.
When looking at Elo ratings, Sabalenka's overall Elo is 402.7 points higher than Fruhvirtova's while her hard-court Elo is 440 points above the Czech's.
This large gap in hard-court Elo makes sense given how vulnerable she is on quicker surfaces due to her lack of power. Along the same lines, Fruhvirtova played 12 matches on hard last season versus 43 on clay, where power is de-emphasized.
This is especially bad news against Sabalenka, a top power player. Sabalenka should have too much pace on serve, on return and she should be the one in total charge of the baseline, with Fruhvirtova helpless to stop her.
And the Belarusian is in form too. She's lost six-or-fewer games in 5-of-6 matches so far this season.
Pick: Under 17.5 games (-122 via FanDuel)
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