Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova Odds, Picks, Prediction | Australian Open Quarterfinal Preview
Andy Cheung, Icon Sportswire/Getty. Pictured: Aryna Sabalenka and Barbora Krejcikova.
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Sabalenka vs Krejcikova Odds
| Sabalenka Odds | -650 |
| Krejcikova Odds | +450 |
| Over/Under | 19.5 (-110o / -110u) |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 3 a.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch US Open, click here. | |
The women's bracket may be busted relative to the men's, but there are still a fewer elite players kicking around.
That includes Aryna Sabalenka, the world No. 2. Sabalenka has proven to be nearly unstoppable early in 2024, and though she may be playing one of the other highest-ranked players left, I would expect her to keep things rolling.
Let's looks more into Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova in my Australian Open quarterfinal preview.
Sabalenka Dominating Like Never Before
As impressive as Sabalenka's 2023 season was, the start to her 2024 campaign has been absolutely monstrous.
Outside of her loss to Elena Rybakina – one of the best in the world herself on hard courts – Sabalenka has been eviscerating her competition this season.
It's no surprise that she's holding serve routinely, with the power she generates behind her first delivery and plus-one groundstrokes, but it's the return game that has been taken to another level.
It's a relatively small sample, but so far in 2024 she has broken her opponents' service games nearly 55% of the time. That is a rate over 15% higher than any previous season. The question is, can she sustain that level? I'd make the case that her improved consistency is a large reason for her increased success. She's actually committed fewer unforced errors (57) than anyone else in the women's field (Coco Gauff has also committed 57).
If she's not making mistakes, it's hard to see how she loses many games, let alone matches, with her power.
Krejcikova has managed to keep her close in the past, but the matchup has been one-sided of late. This should be another test she can pass.
Krejcikova Looking to Back Up Impressive Fourth Round Win
After picking up an underdog win against Mirra Andreeva in the round of 16, Krejcikova will need another upset if she means to reach the final four.
This one won't be as easy, however. It's not a 16-year old that she can play long, 50-50 rallies against and get past in a close match. It's one of the biggest hitters on tour.
Krejcikova has an interesting game, one that is based on precise hitting and top-of-the-shelf counterpunching. She'll need both to be on point overnight to keep within striking distance of her opponent.
Hitting into small targets with her serve will be key in her being able to construct service holds and if she's going to win, she'll need to run everything down, use Sabalenka's pace against her and hope Sabalenka reverts to being somewhat erratic.
I wouldn't expect it to happen, but the path to victory is there, no matter how remote.
Sabalenka vs Krejcikova Pick
Look, I'm not one for trends in general, but at some point, sustained domination of the field from Sabalenka has to be taken seriously, and I'm not sure the markets are adjusting for her domination enough.
She has covered a -5.5 spread so far in each of her eight victories this season. When Swiatek takes on underpowered serves, we see her spreads in the -6 to -7-game range. The same goes for Gauff.
Yet we're still getting Sabalenka at just 5.5 games. Krejcikova used to play her fairly close, but the last three meetings against a more well-rounded Sabalenka have been one-way traffic in the Belarussian's favor. With her return game really stepping up and a huge talent and power advantage, I'm happy to lay the games again here.
Pick: Sabalenka -5.5 games (-110)
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