Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Odds, Picks, Prediction | US Open Semifinal Preview

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Odds, Picks, Prediction | US Open Semifinal Preview article feature image

Sarah Stier, Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys.

Sabalenka vs Keys Odds

Sabalenka Odds-280
 Keys Odds+210
Over/Under21.5 (-110 / -120)
Time | How to WatchThursday, 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via Caesars. For tips on how to watch US Open, click here.

Can anyone stop Aryna Sabalenka? That is question that remains at the US Open as the final four take the court on Thursday night in New York.

It's been a season for the ages for the Belarusian, who has made the semifinals or better at seven big tournaments (Grand Slams and WTA 1000 level events) in 2023, with a 500-level title and another final thrown in for good measure.

She's looking to complete the sweep of the hard-court Grand Slams in 2023.

Standing in her way is 2017 finalist Madison Keys, who is once again feeling it in the Big Apple.

Let's break down the Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys US Open semifinal match.

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Sabalenka Continues Quest For Hard Court Sweep

It's tough to make an argument against Sabalenka with only a few matches to go at this year's US Open.

There is no Elena Rybakina or Iga Swiatek left, her game has vastly improvde and her form is unimpeachable.

Perhaps a case can be made that she hasn't been tested all that much just yet, considering how well she matches up with Daria Kasatkina and how erratic Qinwen Zheng can be, but I find it foolish to question the way she's playing.

Not to mention, it's fairly apparent that the market is pricing in the fact that Keys is in form in her own right and that she poses a threat, considering many books have her above a 30% chance to win.

There isn't much more to say about Sabalenka, however, other than she's the clear favorite, has the game to dominate all three remaining competitors (though Karolina Muchova has clipped her a few times this year, so watch out for that potential final) and that her form doesn't suggest anything different should happen.

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Keys Serving Her Way Through the Draw

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It's a good news, bad news situation for the big-serving American as she takes on Sabalenka.

The bad news? The soon-to-be world No. 1 has dropped more than three games in a set just once so far through five matches. She's on an absolute tear and has improved her game in a big way from years past. Oh, and she beat Keys by a resounding six-game margin at Wimbledon.

The good news? This time around her serve has been nearly untouchable and she'll have the crowd behind at her back. I suppose she can also convince herself that this is a great chance for her to avenge that loss in the quarters at the All England Club as well.

The other thing working for Keys is the players who have beaten Sabalenka have tended to be really strong counterpunchers, or players with big weapons of their own.

In other words, it is possible. It will likely all just come down to the serve for Keys. She's held at an eye-popping 95% rate. She'll need that to continue and a first serve percentage somewhere in the high 60s to low 70s if she is to have a realistic shot at keeping things close and thus having a shot at pulling off the upset.

Sabalenka vs Keys Pick

If I were to take anything in this match, it would have to be the over. I know Keys was trounced at Wimbledon in the quarterfinals by Sabalenka, but she's in a different groove right now on serve, and she now has an American crowd of 20,000-plus strong behind her.

How much that helps her or rattles Sabalenka can't be quantified, but it's not likely to be a burden on the American in this spot.

I'll personally be hoping for Keys to somehow get past an on-fire Sabalenka for outright betting purposes, but if I played a single match wager, it would be the over.

Pick: Over 21.5 games (-110)

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