US Open Odds, Picks for Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng

US Open Odds, Picks for Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng article feature image

Tim Clayton, Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng.

Sabalenka vs Zheng Odds

Sabalenka Odds-400
 Zheng Odds+280
Over/Under20.5 (-125 / -105)
Time | How to WatchWednesday, 12 p.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via Caesars. For tips on how to watch US Open, click here.

Bring on the quarterfinals at the US Open. With Iga Swiatek out, new world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka becomes a heavy favorite to sweep the hard-court Grand Slam titles in 2023.

She takes on Qinwen Zheng in the final eight, though, and the talented 20-year-old from China should not be overlooked. With a little refining, she has the talent to be a top-five player in the world in her own right. She is almost reminiscent of her opponent in this match from a few years ago!

Let's break it all down in my Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng pick and US Open expert preview.

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Sabalenka Assumes Favorite Status

If the pressure wasn't on before for Sabalenka, it is now!

With Swiatek being stunned from a set up by Jelena Ostapenko, the Belarusian is just three matches away from bringing her slam total to two and really mixing things up in the conversation regarding the best player in the women's game.

The added dynamism to her game in the form of reduced double faults and more consistency has taken her game to the next level. She now moves fairly well, has elite tier power and doesn't cough up nearly as many free points with silly mistakes.

That is a deadly combination that can beat absolutely anyone, including her chief rival on the circuit in Swiatek.

I understand her favorite status in this match (obviously, if she's the favorite to win the whole event), but being favored to win this around 75% of the time may be a tad much considering the talent on the other side of the net.

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Zheng Continues to Round Into Form

Now the youngest Chinese woman to ever reach the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam, Zheng's talent has never been in question. The lack of progress this year and her borderline stubborn mindset of just wanting to hit through everyone and everything has left room for doubt, though.

The summer months have seen Zheng's game click into place, and the results have started to improve as a result. She won the title in Palermo on clay in late July and after a few tough matches in Washington and Montreal (losing early to fellow quarterfinalist Madison Keys and a strong hard-courter in Liudmila Samsonova), she made the final 16 in Cincinnati. Zheng ran into Swiatek, where she lost in three, and she has now made the quarters in New York. All in all, I think that has to be considered a success for Zheng.

Her game can be summed up as raw power. Zheng has a huge first serve, big ground strokes and while she may not be the most efficient mover on court compared to many other players as tall as her, it isn't nearly the glaring weakness it could be.

Now, the first serve percentage will have to improve and she may need a few patches where her game redlines, but she's far more live for me than the odds would indicate.

Sabalenka vs Zheng Pick

I'm not looking to oppose Sabalenka with the form she's in and the game she possesses with a big bet here.

However, I am going to look to fade her with a small bet considering the circumstances.

Zheng is too talented to be a near +300 underdog for me, and there's at least a little value in taking that number.

Pick: Zheng ML (+280 via Caesars)

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