ATP Finals Predictions | Rune vs Tsitsipas, Djokovic vs Sinner (Tuesday, November 14)
Nicolo Campo/Getty. Pictured: Jannik Sinner.
The ATP Finals have continued to produce incredible tennis and the action continues on Tuesday!
I’ve found betting picks on both of Tuesday's matchups — Rune vs Tsitsipas and Djokovic vs Sinner.
Read on for my ATP Finals predictions for Tuesday, November 14.
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ATP Finals Predictions
Holger Rune (-172) vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (+140)
8:35 a.m. ET
Holger Rune fought Novak Djokovic hard in his Turin opener, but ultimately fell 6-7(4), 7-6(1), 3-6 to the Serb. Rune hit 18 aces and won 74% of his 1st-serve points, but he won just 42% of his return points and was broken four times. The Dane did win 59% of his 2nd-serve returns, breaking on three occasions.
Rune is just 18-17 on hard this season, but he's won five of his last six matches when not facing Djokovic. And the Dane has an impressive 82-48 professional-mark on hard. Rune hits his spots on serve and has easy power from the baseline. He defends well, has a high tennis IQ and can spread the court effectively.
However, his fitness has been a long-standing issue, and he was a bit too impatient against Djokovic.
Stefanos Tsitsipas struggled in his 4-6, 4-6 defeat to Jannik Sinner to kick off the ATP Finals. Tsitsipas did win 66% of his service points, but he was broken twice. And, he won just 20% of his return points, failing to generate a break point.
Tsitsipas is now 24-14 on hard for the year, with a strong 259-150 career-record on the surface. The Greek has the third-highest serve rating over the past 52 weeks. Tsitsipas constructs points well, keeping the ball on his powerful forehand that he uses to dictate play.
With that said, Tsitsipas' backhand broke down against Sinner and the quick courts in Turin exacerbate his return issues. Tsitsipas has not broken in his last 27 overall return games, and last 21 return games in Turin, specifically.
Tsitsipas' return game is completely unreliable, especially in these conditions. In addition, the Greek's backhand was shaky against Sinner's attacking game.
Rune should dominate in backhand-to-backhand rallies and successfully defend against Tsitsipas' forehand, keeping points alive before eventually getting the ball onto Tsitsipas' backhand. Rune also has had the more reliable ground game in recent matches.
Finally, Tsitsipas plays a less physical brand of tennis than Djokovic, which minimizes the Dane's fitness concerns.
Pick: Rune -1.5 games (-130 via PointsBet)
Novak Djokovic (-182) vs Jannik Sinner (+140)
3:00 p.m. ET
Novak Djokovic survived a tough test against Rune in his Turin opener. Djokovic served 69% of 1st serves into play and won 74% of those points. But, he was broken three times. Djokovic did win 39% of his return points, breaking on four occasions.
Djokovic, who has won both hard court Majors this season, is an incredible 34-1 in 2023 on the surface. As a professional, Djokovic is 719-135 on hard. Djokovic has the second-highest serve rating and fourth-highest return rating over the past 52 weeks. He has the best backhand of all time, excellent movement, impressive counterpunching and an outstanding tennis IQ.
But, Djokovic's level, even dating back to his recent Paris title, has been more uneven than usual, with strange errors leaking into his game. Of course, he still isn't losing.
Jannik Sinner breezed past Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-4 to start his Turin campaign. Sinner won 80% of his service points and never faced a break point. The Italian won 34% of his return points, breaking twice.
Sinner is now an impressive 42-8 on hard courts this season, with a 172-65 record on hard for his career. The Italian has a big first serve and dictates from the ground with high-powered groundstrokes from both wings. Sinner positions himself well, his point construction is strong and he has an elite return (third-highest return rating over last 52 weeks). He isn't the best defensively, however.
The Italian will have the home crowd behind him, and given his serving and first-strike tennis against Tsitsipas, it seems he is up for the challenge here.
Sinner should keep Djokovic on the move and force Djokovic to be reactive, as opposed to proactive. The court speed should help to minimize Djokovic's outstanding return.
And given Sinner's controlled aggression from the ground, Djokovic won't have the margin for error that he had against Rune. He won't be able to recover as easily after getting broken.
Sinner should be able to better take advantage (compared to Rune) of Djokovic's patches of loose play.
Pick: Sinner +2.5 games (-108 via FanDuel)
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