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ATP Finals Tennis Picks, Predictions: Djokovic and Tsitsipas Have Value (November 16)

ATP Finals Tennis Picks, Predictions: Djokovic and Tsitsipas Have Value (November 16) article feature image
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Nicolo Campo/Getty. Pictured: Novak Djokovic.

The ATP Finals have produced some exciting tennis and the action continues in Turin on Wednesday.

I’ve found value on both of Wednesday’s matches, including a showdown between Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev.

Read on for my best bets and predictions!

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.

Novak Djokovic (-300) vs. Andrey Rublev (+230)

8 a.m. ET

Djokovic started the ATP Finals strong, defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 7-6(4). Djokovic was effective on his serve, winning 79% of his service points and he only faced one break point, which he saved.

While it was tough to return Tsitsipas’ big serve on the quick Turin surface, Djokovic did manage to break once and he won two return points in the crucial second-set tiebreak.

It’s been quite the season for Djokovic, which saw him win Wimbledon, but not even get to compete at the Australian Open and US Open. Overall, Djokovic is 37-6 this season, including a 16-2 mark on hard courts.

Djokovic is very fast around the court and plays with top-notch controlled aggression from the baseline. The Serb has the world’s best backhand and, when serving like he did against Tsitsipas, he’s nearly impossible to beat.

Rublev played a complete match to beat Daniil Medvedev 6-7(7), 6-3, 7-6(7) to kick off his Turin campaign. Rublev won 82% of his first-serve points and was only broken once. On return, Rublev won 56% of his second-serve returns and broke Medvedev’s serve three times.

He has had a strong year, going 50-18 so far, which includes a 36-11 record on hard. The Russian has a massive forehand, which he uses to dictate play from the baseline. Rublev bulled Medvedev around the court utilizing this wing.

The problem for Rublev is that Djokovic does everything better than him. Djokovic has a higher rally tolerance compared to the Russian and a more complete offensive game.

The Serb has the edge in backhand-to-backhand exchanges and does a great job of absorbing pace, which will help him neutralize Rublev’s forehand. And, as Djokovic gets used to the Turin surface, his returning should improve.

Pick: Djokovic -3.5 Games (-115 via PointsBet)

Daniil Medvedev (-230) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (+186)

3 p.m. ET

Daniil Medvedev struggled at times against Rublev, losing 7-6(7), 3-6, 6-7(7). Medvedev did hit 46 winners compared to 26 unforced errors, but won just 44% of his second serves. On return, Medvedev struggled, winning 24% of his return points.

While coming one set short of the Australian Open title, Medvedev is 34-12 on hard in 2022 and 45-17 as a whole. When at his best, Medvedev gets incredibly consistent depth from both wings, hits his spots on serve and neutralizes his opposition well.

However, while Medvedev has has still experienced success in the second half of this season, he has looked a step slower than normal and a bit more streaky with his play.

Stefanos Tsitsipas couldn’t crack the Djokovic code, falling to the Serb 4-6, 6-7(4).

Like Medvedev, Tsitsipas failed to win a Slam this season, but he has performed well overall. The Greek has gone 59-22 on the year, which encompasses his 34-15 record on hard courts. While his return and one-handed backhand can sometimes break down under pressure, Tsitsipas is one of the best spot-servers on the ATP Tour and his forehand, touch and net play are all superb.

Medvedev had won seven of the first nine matchups between the two, but Tsitsipas’ three-set victory in Cincinnati showcased how the Greek was starting to have the belief and figuring out the shot combinations necessary to hit through the Russian.

In addition, given how comfortable Tsitsipas looked serving on the Turin surface, it’s hard to see Medvedev breaking often. Tsitsipas’ backhand held up well-enough that it won’t be easy for Medvedev to exploit that wing.

Pick: Tsitsipas +3.5 Games (-140 via FanDuel)

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