ATP Indian Wells Odds, Picks, Analysis: Best Way to Bet Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
Mike Lawrence/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Alcaraz
We’re down to the business end of one of the biggest events on the tennis calendar at Indian Wells.
The men take the court for their semifinals on Saturday and we have some of the biggest names in the sport involved.
Let’s break down each of the semis and see where the most valuable positions can be taken in the betting markets.
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ATP Indian Wells Odds, Picks
Carlos Alcaraz (-170) vs Jannik Sinner (+130)
5:30 pm EST
After finally earning his first win in four tries in the quarterfinals against Felix Auger Aliassime, Carlos Alcaraz looks to best another foe who gave him problems a year ago.
After a pair of losses to Jannik Sinner in Umag and at Wimbledon, Alcaraz needed five sets to take him down at the U.S. Open. It’s a matchup that has produced some great tennis, but the Spaniard surely wants to add another straight-sets win to his resume Saturday.
We know the conditions during the Sunshine Double are favorable to Alcaraz. He can hit through the courts and it’s so hard to rush him and coax unforced errors from his racquet.
It takes a strong serve and big power from the baseline to really stand a chance against him here. Sinner checks one of those boxes as he hits with as much power from the baseline as just about anyone, but I think his serve is vulnerable enough for Alcaraz to have some openings.
In terms of form, I favor the world No. 2 here as well. Sinner has played some admirable tennis, but against Taylor Fritz, the blistering forehands from the first set tailed off a bit in the second, and if that happens against Alcaraz, Sinner could find himself in some serious trouble.
As for Alcaraz, he seems to be getting better as the tournament progresses. He’s yet to drop a set and he overcame a pretty sturdy performance from the Canadian on Thursday night.
Finally, the athleticism gap here is huge. Sinner has struggled plenty in recent years with injuries and the rigors of the tour. He moves a bit better than he’s given credit for, but he’s not in the same league as his counterpart.
Give me Alcaraz here, and if you line shop, you’ll see Caesar’s actually has a -1.5-game spread available at -125. With most of the market laying two games at that price, I’m happy to take the off-market number, which could come be big if this goes three sets.
Picks: Alcaraz -1.5 Games (-125 via Caesars)
Daniil Medvedev (-165) vs Frances Tiafoe (+135)
4 pm EST
Daniil Medvedev’s win streak is up to 18 matches as he charges his way back up the rankings in the early parts of 2023.
After a disappointing season (by his standards) a year ago, he’s right back to showcasing why he’s one of the best hard-court players the sport has to offer.
Perhaps the most impressive part of this run is that he’s racked up so many wins on courts he typically hates. In fact, he’s been vocal in each of his matches in California about how much he dislikes these “clay” courts.
He was vulnerable against Alexander Zverev and needed a close third set. He also should have lost the second set against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina last round.
Now he plays Frances Tiafoe who, for my money, has been the form player of this tournament. Another player who has had more success on quicker courts, Tiafoe’s serve is cutting through the slow courts in Tennis Paradise and his forehand has been both powerful and well placed.
Along with those weapons, he has the ability to grind out long points and the speed and court coverage one needs to trouble the big Russian.
Count me in the American’s corner to pull off the upset.
Pick: Tiafoe +1.5 sets (+115 via BetMGM) & Tiafoe Moneyline (+325 via BetMGM)
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