ATP Indian Wells Odds, Picks | Best Bets For Draper vs Riedi, Thiem vs Mannarino (Mar. 9)
Marcelo Endelli/Getty. Pictured: Dominic Thiem.
We're off at one of the biggest tennis tournaments on the calendar, as the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells is underway.
It was a jam packed first day of main draw action from "Tennis Paradise," and they'll run it back on the second day as the opening round of matches concludes.
Let's take a look at a pair of contests from the desert for Thursday!
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Australian Open matches.
ATP Indian Wells Odds, Picks
Jack Draper (-195) vs Leandro Riedi (+155)
2 p.m. ET
This matchup may not feature big names that the more casual fans may recognize, but I would highly encourage people to tune into this match between two relatively young guns with big games.
We haven't seen Jack Draper since the Australian Open, where he had a tough first-round draw and bowed out in the opening round against Rafael Nadal. The Brit has never played Indian Wells either, which is important in handicapping this event, simply because of how unique the conditions are.
The "Fifth Slam" has incredibly slow courts that only get slower at night, but thinner desert air allows the balls to fly. Not having played a professional match here is certainly a red flag.
Draper has also been a player that has had his best results on quicker surfaces in his career. He possesses a ton of power, but struggles in prolonged points and his physicality is still a big question mark, with cramps frequently getting the best of him.
Here, prolonged points are the name of the game and endurance is key.
Riedi is another up-and-comer that went on an absolute tear at the end of last year down on the Challenger Tour. Another big server with a monster forehand, he also prefers quicker surfaces.
The difference? He's played since the Australian swing, taking a set off a top-15 player in Hubert Hurkacz in Marseille, then he qualified into this event.
Considering he's played more recently than January, Riedi has shown these slower conditions don't phase him and he can stick with the power of Draper.
I'm more than happy to back him to keep this one close and even pull off the upset.
Picks: Over 22.5 Games (-105 via Caesars) | Riedi ML (+155 via PointsBet)
Dominic Thiem (-115) vs Adrian Mannarino (-105)
9 p.m. ET
Going back to the theme of grinding out long points and outlasting one's opposition, I'm not sure how Adrian Mannarino is a pick 'em in this spot against a struggling Dominic Thiem.
The Austrian is still nowhere near his best and is a shell of his former self (through no fault of his own, coming back from a tough injury takes time), and he simply doesn't possess the power to hit through these courts and Mannarino's defenses.
He was also more erratic than I remember during the Golden Swing in South America on his preferred clay, and that's a recipe for disaster.
The Frenchman would prefer lower bouncing courts, but his compact back swings, his ability to run everything down and a strong first serve of his own should be enough to warrant favorite status in this one.
Thiem's tendency to get impatient should be detrimental here and I'm good to back this as long as Mannarino continues to be near an even-money valuation.
Pick:Mannarino ML (-105 via DraftKings)
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