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2021 ATP Tennis Picks: Value in Fading Andy Murray on Monday (Nov. 1)

2021 ATP Tennis Picks: Value in Fading Andy Murray on Monday (Nov. 1) article feature image

Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty Images. Pictured: Andy Murray.

The tennis rolls on in Paris as the first round of the Rolex Paris Masters continues.

A number of intriguing matches are on display, but I’ll be targeting two more underdogs in the afternoon.

Here’s how I’ll be betting the late slate of action.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches. 

Lorenzo Musetti (-142) vs. Laslo Djere (+116)

11:20 a.m. ET

Despite only being 19 years old, Musetti has already faced Djere three times on tour.

The Serbian has taken all of the matches in three sets, with the most recent meeting coming in Nur-Sultan. It’s understandable, as Djere’s style of play matches up well against Musetti’s game.

Djere used to be a player that wasn’t very capable of playing on hardcourt surfaces, but he’s raised his level throughout the year. Despite a poor stretch in recent events, Djere has won five matches at the tour level in 2021. Recent losses against Gilles Simon and Maxime Cressy came in three-set battles.

Musetti also dealt with a rough period in the summer, but he’s won two matches in his last five. Nonetheless, he only qualified for the main draw in Paris through a lucky loser draw after he fell to Hugo Gaston in the second round of qualifying.

With both players struggling to find their form, the advantage goes to Djere, who is historically comfortable in this matchup and should go into it with added confidence.

At plus-money, he’s a worthwhile play.

Pick: Laslo Djere +116 via FanDuel

Andy Murray (-185) vs. Jenson Brooksby (+140)

2:30 p.m. ET

NOTE Brooskby withdrew from this match due to injury.

Not often does a player with an 11-3 record on the ATP Tour in his past 14 matches come into a battle with a wild card as an underdog, but here we are.

It’s hard to classify the former world number one Murray as a wild card, but that is how he entered the tournament. His results and performances have improved mightily over the season and in recent events, but Murray has still only won five of his past eight matches, and he’s struggled against quality opponents.

Brooksby’s three losses in the past two months come against players that are all ranked inside the top 15 on tour, including Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic. He took a set off each player in those matches. Simply put, Brooksby plays at the level of a mainstay on tour at the very least.

The two players have incredibly similar styles. Each is content with extended rallies that often fall into cat-and-mouse situations, and neither has a particularly effective serve. Brooksby can fall into traps where he merely hits neutral serves, though Murray just hasn’t been able to find his serve as of late.

One factor that works in Murray’s advantage is the time that Brooksby has already spent on court. Making his way through the qualifiers, the American engaged in three-set matches against Peter Gojowczyk and Roberto Carballes Baena. Murray enters the first round fresh after an early loss to Carlos Alcaraz at the Erste Bank Open last week.

Brooksby is used to those kind of battles, however, and his game is certainly at a higher level than Murray’s at the moment. With excellent fitness behind him, Brooksby should be the slight favorite in this battle.

Take the 21-year old at a great price.

Pick: Jenson Brooksby +140 via BetMGM

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