ATP Tennis Odds, Betting Analysis: Why Underdogs Tiafoe, de Minaur Have Value (Oct. 28)

ATP Tennis Odds, Betting Analysis: Why Underdogs Tiafoe, de Minaur Have Value (Oct. 28) article feature image
Credit:

Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: Frances Tiafoe.

  • We have another exciting round of ATP action on the Thursday's global tennis landscape.
  • Avery Zimmerman takes a look at the afternoon session, which includes two live underdogs on his radar.
  • Check out below where he's found betting value with Frances Tiafoe and Alex de Minaur.

Though there are a number of matches on Thursday’s slate of ATP tennis that oddsmakers view as extremely tight matches, there are three with heavy favorites.

In two of those situations, I believe that the underdog is mispriced. Frances Tiafoe and Alex de Minaur both have a chance to contend as major underdogs in Vienna.

Here is why I believe the duo can give their favored counterparts problems.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches. 

Alex Zverev (-650) vs. Alex de Minaur (+450)

11:30 a.m. ET

The reasons for this line are very clear. Zverev has played some of the best tennis of his life in the past couple of months, winning a remarkable 22 of his past 24 matches and owning a 4-1 H2H record against de Minaur.

But hear me out.

De Minaur is just now finding the form that elevated him to becoming a top-20 player on tour. The Aussie has three wins in his last five matches, though a brutal 6-4, 6-0 loss last week to Brandon Nakashima stands out.

Nevertheless, the biggest point of confidence behind de Minaur was his returning ability against Kevin Anderson. Against one of the biggest servers on tour, de Minaur generated 10 break points and won 32 points in nine games on return.

This line is the way it is because Zverev combines a top-10 first serve on tour with top-10 ball striking, but de Minaur has the capability of holding firm and competing in rallies, as he did when the two last met in Australia.

If de Minaur can generate errors out of Zverev, he’ll have a shot at building on his tight loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas at Indian Wells. If he can return as he did against Zverev and generate errors? He’ll have a shot at competing very well.

Pick:  De Minaur To Win a Set (+140) | de Minaur ML (+450) via FanDuel

Stefanos Tsitsipas (-400) vs. Frances Tiafoe (+300)

12:50 p.m. ET

With four quality outings on the bounce from Tiafoe (dating back to his near-four hour battle with Andy Murray), the American is sustaining the level of tennis that he generated over the summer.

Tsitsipas hasn’t necessarily been able to do the same. He was fortunate to escape Tuesday’s match vs. Grigor Dimitrov with a win, and he struggled mightily in Indian Wells, engaging in three extended matches out of the four he played.

Tiafoe and Tsitsipas met twice this summer, with Tiafoe defeating the Greek in straight sets at Wimbledon and Tsitsipas returning the favor at the Olympics.

The powerful American is capable of taking the initiative against the world No. 3 as he’s shown before, and if he limits his inconsistency on Thursday, Tsitsipas could struggle to match his intensity.

The underdog has wins in the last three months over Denis Shapovalov, Ugo Humbert and Diego Schwartzman, but another top-five win against Tsitsipas would add yet another layer to Tiafoe’s best season to date.

I think he has a serious shot at doing just that.

Pick: Frances Tiafoe To Win a Set (+100) | Frances Tiafoe ML (+300) via Bet365

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