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ATP Vienna and Basel Odds, Analysis, Bets: Close Matches the Theme for Sunday

ATP Vienna and Basel Odds, Analysis, Bets: Close Matches the Theme for Sunday article feature image
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Brandon Malone/Getty. Pictured: Holger Rune hits a backhand at the Australian Open.

It’s a big finals Sunday on the ATP Tour as a pair of ATP 500 tournaments wrap up in Vienna, Austria and Basel, Switzerland.

With how things have gone of late, it shouldn’t be surprising to anyone that Sunday’s two finales feature the likes of Felix Auger Aliassime, Holger Rune, Denis Shapovalov and Daniil Medvedev.

Let’s dive into each final and find the best bets available.

Daniil Medvedev (-425) vs. Denis Shapovalov (+300)

 9:00 a.m. ET, Vienna

The first matchup of the morning features one of the very best in the business on hard courts in Medvedev, taking on the electric game of Shapovalov.

There is quite a contrast between these two in several facets of the game. First, Medvedev is a righty, compared to the southpaw play of the Canadian. Then there’s the two-handed backhand of the tall Russian, going up against the rare one-handed technique of Shapovalov. Finally — and the most important — is the contrast in game style. Medvedev comes in as a big server and an absolute wall from the baseline. On the flip side, Shapovalov plays a more boom-or-bust style.

However, the one thing we know about Shapovalov is that he’s able to hang with the best of them when his game is clicking. He moves extremely well and can hit his forehand with impressive power. His backhand is liable to being rushed, but in a match where baseline rallies are likely to see Medvedev hitting softer shots back, Shapovalov should be able to set and wind up without committing too many errors.

Shapovalov is familiar with coming into the net when the opportunity presents itself. This is important against someone like Medvedev, who can camp well behind the baseline and force his opponents to come in to take time away from him.

I certainly think Medvedev has earned the right to be a relatively sizable favorite in this one, but the Canadian, with the form he is in (this is his second final and third semifinal in his past four events), can certainly keep things close.

Pick:  Over 22.5 Games (+100 via PointsBet)

Felix Auger Aliassime (-333) vs. Holger Rune (+240)

 10 a.m. ET, Basel

In what could be a huge day for Canadian tennis, Auger Aliassime takes on Rune in the Basel final and is looking for his third title in as many weeks. After being crowned the champ in both Florence and Antwerp, the 22-year-old has put together a 12-match win streak.

Auger Aliassime’s serve is one of the best in the game and is accentuated even more on quick surfaces. His forehand is a cannon that can find him quick, easy points. Finally, his athleticism, especially for a kid his size, is absolutely incredible.

Even his backhand — once a liability to spray unforced errors — has improved by leaps and bounds and now keeps him in rallies until he can find a way back to his forehand.

As for the scorelines he’s managed to put up? Good luck winning a set, unless you’re holding serve six times and taking him to a tiebreak.

Felix Auger-Aliassime in the last six weeks:

– beat Alcaraz (2x), Djokovic (1x)
– 12-match winning streak on (i) HC

Has won his last 75 (!!!) service games and faced just THREE break points during this period (via @samirvd)

— Alex | Tennis 🎾 (@Alex_Boroch) October 29, 2022

As for Rune, his present form is eclipsed only by that of his Sunday opponent.

Rune has made three finals in three weeks, won 24 of his past 25 matches and is looking for his back-to-back championship moment.

He may not have the power of Auger Aliassime, but his serve has improved drastically since clay season, and his combination of shotmaking and ability to dictate from the baseline has demonstrated precisely why he was one the most talked about prospects a year ago.

As for his service statistics? Since the beginning of the quicker indoor hard-court season in Sofia (Metz has played slower than usual over the past few years), Rune has held serve 92.4% of the time and has also yet to be broken this week.

Auger Aliassime has looked incredible on return this week, but that hasn’t been his bread and butter historically. With Rune serving as well as he is, I’m more than happy to back the serving dominance of these two to continue.

Pick: 3-3 After 6 Games (-110 via BetMGM)

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