Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune Wimbledon Odds, Pick | Expert Match Preview

Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune Wimbledon Odds, Pick | Expert Match Preview article feature image

Rob Newell, Shaun Botterill/Getty. Pictured: Holger Rune and Carlos Alcaraz.

Alcaraz vs Rune Odds

Alcaraz Odds-385
 Rune Odds+300
Over/Under37.5 (-116 / -116)
Time | How to WatchWednesday, 9:45 a.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via BetMGM. For tips on how to watch the Wimbledon, click here.

No big three will ever top the trio of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. But with Nadal nearing the end, Federer retired and Djokovic sitting at 36-years-old, we have a new big tennis three featuring Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune.

We already witnessed a thrilling Grand Slam match between Sinner and Alcaraz at the 2022 US Open, and now the Spaniard and Rune will face off on Wednesday with a spot in the Wimbledon semifinals on the line.

We could be set for another instant classic, as Alcaraz is seeking his first semifinal in London while Rune is searching for his first semifinal berth at a major in general.

Here's how I'm betting this showdown.

Alcaraz Figuring Out Grass

Coming into the 2023 season — and despite dealing with an injury — we knew Alcaraz was the No. 2 player in the world after Djokovic. He's only 20-years-old, but his combination of mental toughness, conditioning, lethal groundstrokes and flair for the dramatic was well beyond his years.

He proved that in New York in 2023, where he won his first Grand Slam at the US Open.

However, there were concerns about Alcaraz's game on grass — he played just 11 matches on the surface coming into the Championships.

The Spaniard has proven his doubters wrong, though, dropping just two sets in four matches. In the round of 16, Alcaraz rallied to defeat Matteo Berrettini, a 2021 semifinalist, in four sets.

Only Rune is standing in the way of him reaching his third Grand Slam semifinal.

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Rune in Similar Spot to Opponent

Like Alcaraz, the 20-year-old Rune doesn't have a lot of experience on grass — he owned a 3-4 record on the surface before Wimbledon.

But unlike Alcaraz, Rune hasn't shown he's capable of truly competing at major championships.

The Danish has never advanced further than the quarterfinal round, which is not all that stunning considering he just broke out last year.

Rune has an incredibly high upside, though, and has proven he can play with the best in the world on any surface.

In this tournament in particular, Rune eliminated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in a fifth-set tiebreaker before topping Grigor Dimitrov in four sets in the round of 16.

Rune's gritty game and confidence gives him a true shot at taking down Alcaraz in this spot, but a side is not the angle I'm targeting for my best bet.

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Alcaraz vs Rune Pick

If you asked me before the quarterfinals started, I would've easily said this was the most intriguing matchup of the round.

While both players are familiar with the other's game, Alcaraz and Rune have never played a true full match. I say that because one of their meetings came in the Next Gen Finals in 2021 (Alcaraz won) and their second was in a 1000-event in Paris in 2022 that Alcaraz was forced to retire from in the second set.

That likely means it will take the players at least a set to feel each other out, especially on a surface that is relatively unfamiliar to both.

Alcaraz's six double faults against Matteo Berrettini were rather concerning, and that potentially opens the door for Rune to find break opportunities to help keep him within striking distance.

I don't think the level of play and ball-striking will reach the Sinner/Alcaraz 2022 US Open level, but I expect this to either be a long four-set match or for it to go the distance.

The future of tennis is here, and it's time to back the over.

Pick: Over 37.5 games (-116 via BetMGM)

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