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Coco Gauff vs. Sloane Stephens French Open Odds, Pick, Preview (May 31)

Coco Gauff vs. Sloane Stephens French Open Odds, Pick, Preview (May 31) article feature image
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Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Coco Gauff.

  • Coco Gauff is favored to beat Sloane Stephens in an all-American French Open match.
  • David Gertler breaks down the quarterfinal and drops his best bet.
  • Read on for his analysis and thoughts on where the value lies.

Looking for our best bet on Gauff’s semifinal? Click here!

Gauff vs. Stephens Odds

Gauff Odds -215
 Stephens Odds +165
Over/Under 20.5
Time 7:30 a.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

We have an all-American quarterfinal in Paris as Coco Gauff takes on Sloane Stephens.

The No. 18 seed Gauff continues to roll through the draw at Roland Garros. In her latest victory, Gauff defeated Elise Mertens 6-4, 6-0 to reach the quarterfinals.

Can Gauff advance to the semifinals with a win over former finalist Stephens?

Let’s break down this quarterfinal match.

Gauff Continues To Win

Against Mertens, Gauff won 72% of her first-serve points and was only broken twice, holding five-straight times to end the match. On return, Gauff won 61% of her return points, which allowed her to break in six-of-eight return games.

Gauff played well in all facets of her game. Mertens was intent on long rallies from the beginning of the match and the American did a great job of staying patient in those long rallies and waiting for a short ball to attack.

Eventually, Mertens was not physically able to keep up with Gauff’s relentless game.

Mertens won just 45% of her first serves and 30% of her second serves against Gauff. This means that no Gauff opponent so far in this tournament has won 60% of their first serves nor 50% of their second serves against her return.

Gauff’s backhand has been fantastic this tournament. She hits with excellent controlled aggression from that wing and can control the baseline.

She also moves around the court well and can turn defense into offense very quickly. This is especially the case on clay, where Gauff has a 38-16 record in professional matches, including a WTA Tour title in Parma.

Gauff’s forehand is by far the weakest part of her game. Mertens didn’t do much to pressure her forehand, but when an opponent effectively targets Gauff’s forehand, that wing can break down very quickly.

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Stephens Rounding Into Form

Stephens played one of her best matches of the season in the round of 16 against Jil Teichmann. Stephens defeated Teichmann 6-2, 6-0, winning the final 12 games of the match.

She dominated on serve against Teichmann, winning 76% of her service points and only getting broken once, in her first service game of the match.

Stephens was also incredibly good on return, winning 63% of her return points, including 79% on Teichmann’s second serve. This allowed Stephens to break six times in seven return games.

After this match, it’s hard to believe that Stephens was 0-4 on clay in 2022 coming into Roland Garros. Stephens hits the ball so cleanly and with easy power from both the forehand and backhand side.

In addition, the American is moving around the clay very well and when she’s playing well (like against Teichmann), she hits with consistent depth.

No opponent in Paris so far has won at least 55% of their service points against Stephens.

Betting Value

Stephens played incredibly well against Teichmann and all facets of her game are firing.

She’s hitting with easy power while also staying consistent from the baseline. In addition, Stephens is one of the best movers on the WTA Tour so she’s able to hang in rallies until she can go on the attack.

Gauff’s backhand is a major weapon and she also covers the court well. With that said, her forehand will be the weakest shot on the court and while Mertens didn’t do a good job taking advantage of that wing, Stephens is better-suited to do so.

Stephens’ defense will allow her to hang in rallies and defend against Gauff’s backhand. She will be able to neutralize rallies and eventually start targeting and pressuring Gauff’s forehand.

Unlike Mertens, Stephens will hit with power to Gauff’s forehand, rushing her and forcing short balls along with mishits from that wing.

Pick:  Stephens +3.5 games (-115)

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