Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova Odds, Pick, Prediction | US Open Expert Preview

Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova Odds, Pick, Prediction | US Open Expert Preview article feature image

Tim Clayton, Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova.

Gauff vs Muchova Odds

Gauff Odds-200
 Muchova Odds+160
Over/Under20.5 (-155 / +122)
Time | How to WatchThursday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch US Open, click here.

Coco Gauff cruised into the semifinals of the US Open, beating Jelena Ostapenko 6-0, 6-2.

But how will Gauff fare against Karolina Muchova, who took down Sorana Cirstea 6-0, 6-3 in her quarterfinal showdown?

Read on for my full Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova pick and expert preview.

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Gauff Continues Excellent Form

Despite serving at just 48% of her first serves in, Gauff won 63% of her service points against Ostapenko, getting broken just once. The American won 62% of her return points, breaking six times.

Gauff's defensive skills and ability to absorb pace were excellent, but the Latvian hit just 12 winners versus 36 unforced errors and made just 38% of her first serves. Ostapenko's level was so abysmal that it was difficult to assess Gauff's game.

The rising star is now 43-13 this season overall with a 31-6 hard-court record specifically. Including her WTA Tour titles in Washington and Cincinnati, Gauff is now 16-1 during the summer hard-court swing. The American is an impressive 101-50 on hard now for her career.

Gauff's two biggest shots are her first serve and backhand. The American hits her first serve with pace and precision, although her first-serve percentage against Ostapenko was rough. From the ground, Gauff plays with excellent controlled aggression from her backhand wing.

Her defensive skills and ability to absorb pace are elite. She's fast with excellent anticipation skills, not merely putting the ball back into play, but counterpunching successfully.

In addition, Gauff is a Slam doubles finalist from the 2022 French Open and her net play is a strength.

The American's forehand is her biggest weakness. She often tries to over-emphasize topspin, leading to short balls that pop up into her opponents' strike zones.

Gauff's forehand struggles when the ball is outside of her strike zone and opponents rush her. This can lead to unforced errors leaking from her forehand.

Her second serve is also typically a deficiency, as it sits up in the box too much.

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Muchova Excelling in New York

Against Cirstea, Muchova won 60% of her service points and saved 10-of-11 break points. The Czech also won 60% of her return points, breaking six times.

Muchova hit 32 winners against 15 unforced errors in an excellent performance. She came to the net 17 times, winning 13 of those points. The Czech balanced offense and defense perfectly throughout the match.

The French Open finalist has still dropped just one set all tournament. In fact, out of the 11 sets she's played so far in New York, she's only dropped five games or more in just two of them.

Muchova is now 38-12 this year, which includes a 27-8 hard-court record. The Czech is 13-3 during the summer hard-court swing, reaching the WTA Cincinnati final. As a professional, Muchova is a strong 139-65 on hard.

Her serve is placed well and hit with pace. Muchova has easy power from both her forehand and backhand, although her forehand is more reliable.

She positions herself on court well and understands the right times to move forward. And Muchova hits precise, crisp volleys. She also has a nasty backhand slice in her tool bag, keeping the ball out of her opponents' strike zones. Muchova can hit tough angles as well.

In addition, Muchova is an excellent defender. She is quick and anticipates well, neutralizing her opponents' attacks before recovering her lost court positioning. Her passing shots are superb and she can turn points around quickly.

Muchova's shot selection can be suspect, though, given the number of options she has.

Gauff vs Muchova Pick

Gauff's level this tournament has not been quite as good as it was earlier during the summer hard-court swing. While her defensive skills and backhand continue to be terrific, she's not hitting the forehand quite as cleanly and is leaving too many attackable balls.

Her first-serve percentage against Ostapenko was brutal. That cannot happen again.

Muchova has many ways to attack Gauff. Her serve is big enough to get her plenty of free and easy points. She can blunt Gauff's power on her backhand with her athleticism and defensive skills while taking advantage of the short balls from the American's forehand when she can finally attack that wing.

She also has the transition and net game to cut balls off at the net and prevent Gauff from drawing out rallies.

Finally, Muchova's backhand slice should be huge in this matchup. She can use this not only to keep Gauff from attacking with her backhand, but her slices to the American's forehand can draw errors out of that wing.

Pick: Muchova +3.5 games (-125)

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