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Corentin Moutet vs. Rafael Nadal French Open Odds, Prediction (May 25)

Corentin Moutet vs. Rafael Nadal French Open Odds, Prediction (May 25) article feature image
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Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images. Pictured: Rafael Nadal

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Corentin Moutet vs. Rafael Nadal Odds

Moutet Odds +1800
Nadal Odds -10000
Total 38.5 (-115 / -115)
Time 2:45 p.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Rafael Nadal has had an injury-riddled season, and because of that, he entered Roland Garros as an underdog for the first time in what feels like forever.

The man has lost four matches ever at the French Open, but he’s had plenty of close encounters. Could this be one of them?

Let’s look into the matchup.

Mystery Moutet

It seemed like Corentin Moutet was bound to be a mainstay on tour when he broke into the top 100 a few years ago. But we haven’t seen much of the eccentric Frenchman in the last couple of years.

Moutet started off the year on fire, with a run to the semifinals in Adelaide after he was defaulted for unsportsmanlike conduct the week prior.

He was a talking and winning machine. Moutet even went five sets with Sebastian Korda at the Australian Open in a match he really should have won. He looked to be a force on tour once again.

Unfortunately, Moutet never really recovered after that rocky end to his trip to Australia. He lost three of his next four matches during the indoor hard-court swing before taking two and a half months off.

He returned at the Challenger level, and after dropping two of his three matches, turned up at Roland Garros and dominated Stan Wawrinka.

It seems like a big mystery where Moutet’s game is at right now, but we know at his best, he can be a very tough out.

We also know his best results have come on the clay, and they’ve come in France. Like Hugo Gaston on Tuesday, we could see a player with no form seemingly establish it out of thin air behind these raucous crowds at Roland Garros.

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Can Nadal Find Some Consistency?

You could write 2000 words on how Nadal looks at the moment, and where he’s been over the last three years. I won’t go too far into detail, but I’ll let you know that despite the fact that he’s lost just four times in his entire career at the French Open, Nadal is going to be on upset alert early this year.

The Spaniard dealt with a rib injury against Taylor Fritz in the Indian Wells final and later, a foot injury in a loss to Denis Shapovalov in Rome.

For how great the start of his season was with a win at the Australian Open, the last month or so has been rather rocky. There’s no denying Nadal is still one of the three or four best clay-court players in the world — even in his injured state. He’s just not quite the unstoppable force he’s been for most of his time on tour.

With all that said, Nadal’s trip to Roland Garros started off unassumingly enough. He easily beat Jordan Thompson in straight sets, dropping just two games in each set. It brings his record in his last four matches to 2-2.

Betting Value

Nadal’s domination of Thompson doesn’t really tell us much. The Aussie has never been much of a clay-court player and is nothing more than a borderline top-100 player who earns his points over bad opponents. He owns no weapons and had no way to really impact Nadal’s game.

Moutet is a disruptor on the court, mixing in drop shots and jumping two-handed backhands. Though he’s small, he can create plenty of offense for himself and win matches with his exceptional defense.

There’s also the crowd factor. The French fans have always cheered Nadal on for all the great things he’s done at Roland Garros, but it’s fair to expect a partisan crowd on Wednesday. French fans seem to really like Moutet, who is a character, and I imagine he will get some sort of lift from playing on Chatrier.

With that being said, I’m going to back Moutet to stay competitive here. I just think there are too many questions about Nadal’s health, and there’s been a severe overreaction after Rafa’s opening-round win.

Pick: Over 26.5 (-110)

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