Expert French Open Betting Picks | Kecmanovic vs Medvedev, Fognini vs Paul (May 30)

Expert French Open Betting Picks | Kecmanovic vs Medvedev, Fognini vs Paul (May 30) article feature image

Alex Pantling/Getty. Pictured: Fabio Fognini.

After some rain on Wednesday, we'll be treated to a loaded slate of tennis from Paris on Thursday as the second round continues from Roland Garros.

I'm looking to fade two of the top 15 seeds in this year's draw with very accomplished clay players, one of which is nearing the end of his career while the other is just hitting his prime.

Here are my expert French Open betting picks for Kecmanovic vs Medvedev and Fognini vs Paul on May 30.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing French Open matches.

Expert French Open Betting Picks

Miomir Kecmanovic (+285) vs Daniil Medvedev (-370)

5 a.m. ET

We touched on Medvedev's tumultuous history in front of French crowds when we faded him in the first round, and I'll continue to bet against him here in what should be an even-tougher matchup against Miomir Kecmanovic.

The Serb has been a model of inconsistency over the last few years, but he's managed to avoid a losing record on the clay in each season. He can rip the ball and find lines, and throughout his 2024 campaign he has displayed incredible fitness which is key when squaring off with the World No. 5.

Yes, Kecmanovic did fall in straight set to Medvedev when they met at the 2022 French Open, but that run was an outlier for the Russian. In four years prior, he'd never won a match here at Roland Garros, and in that campaign he was upset by Marin Cilic in the fourth round before falling in the first round in 2023.

It's not as if Medvedev is an inherently bad clay player, and he's made adjustments to his game over the past three seasons to get better on the dirt. He's just not the surefire top-five player on this surface that he is elsewhere, with his defense not playing up on slow courts and his big serve posing less of a threat.

Kecmanovic has historically been a tough out at the Grand Slam level and this one has all the makings of another tricky one for Medvedev, as his first-round encounter with Dominik Koepfer was. Though he's left-handed and Kecmanovic is a righty, the two play a very similar game with the Serb possessing even more talent.

Pick: Kecmanovic +5.5 games (+105)

Fabio Fognini (+340) vs Tommy Paul (-450)

7:30 a.m. ET

Tommy Paul was anointed as the lone man from this generation of American tennis players who could find success on clay with his ability to hit with topspin, but so far it hasn't come to fruition. He's gone 21-23 across all levels on clay since 2019 and has yet to make the third round of Roland Garros in his career.

Enter Fabio Fognini, a very experienced player who's done his best work on clay and has made it past the second round in four of his last six trips to Paris. The Italian has found his game again this year with nine wins in 15 total matches between the main draws, qualifying and the Challenger Tour, and he played inspired tennis in the first round against Botic van de Zandschulp.

With a win in their only match, even if it was on a hardcourt, I think Fognini will have his shine in this match and at least push it five if he doesn't win. These are far too many games to spot Fognini. I'd have this priced around +4.5 (+110) and +5.5 at around -130. This should be a cracking affair.

Pick: Fognini +6.5 games (-105)

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