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French Open Round 2 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Riske Next Target for Swiatek (May 26)

French Open Round 2 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Riske Next Target for Swiatek (May 26) article feature image
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DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Iga Swiatek.

  • Iga Swiatek continues her run to a second Roland Garros title against Alison Riske.
  • The world No. 1 is a heavy favorite as she has been in most of her matches over recent weeks.
  • David Gertler breaks down where the value lies.

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Swiatek vs. Riske Odds

Swiatek Odds -7000
Tsurenko Odds +2000
Over/Under 16.5
Time 8:15 a.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

World No. 1 Iga Swiatek dominated Lesia Tsurenko in their first round encounter at the French Open. Swiatek won 6-2, 6-0 and never let Tsurenko into the match.

Will there be a similarly-lopsided result in the second round against Alison Riske?

Let’s break down into this second round match.

Swiatek On Fire

The first round of Roland Garros against Tsurenko was similar to many of Swiatek’s recent matches.

Swiatek put together a complete performance. She won 72% of her service points and was broken just once all match. On return, she won 70% of her return points and broke Tsurenko’s serve six times in seven service games. She also hit 20 winners compared to 13 unforced errors in the match.

This was the latest in a 29-match winning streak for the Pole. She’s emerged victorious the last five tournaments she’s competed in and won 20 of her last 21 matches in straight sets.

Much of Swiatek’s recent success has occurred on clay. She has gone 10-0 during the clay-court season and only lost one set. This includes titles in Stuttgart and Rome. In Rome, Swiatek only lost 21 games in her five Rome matches.

There are no weaknesses to the Swiatek game. She hits her targets on serve and her forehand is one of the top shots on the WTA Tour. Swiatek’s backhand is solid and she’s increasingly able to use it as a weapon.

Swiatek’s variety allows her to keep opponents off-balance and she does a great job of constructing points. Her movement is also amongst the best on the WTA Tour, which is especially the case on clay.

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Riske Enters Off Strong Start to Roland Garros

Riske is not known for her clay-court acumen. However, in the first round of Roland Garros, she defeated Dayana Yastremska 6-3, 6-3 to set up this showdown.

The American returned well against Yastremska, winning 46% of her first-serve return points and 54% of her second-serve return points. This allowed Riske to break five times.

She protected her own serve fairly well, winning 65% of her second serves and only getting broken twice all match. Riske’s entire game was working well against Yastremska.

Riske has played four matches on clay this season, going 2-2 so far. In her career, Riske has won just 43% of her matches on clay. This is in stark comparison to the 56% of hard-court matches she’s won and 69% of grass-court matches. She generally prefers faster, low-bouncing surfaces.

Nonetheless, when Riske is playing well she can be a threat, regardless of the surface she’s playing on. Her forehand can control the baseline fairly well and her backhand can cut through the court very well.

Betting Value

There’s very little to say in terms of the head to head analysis other than Swiatek is a much better player in all facets of her game.

Swiatek has the better serve and will be able to dominate from the baseline with her forehand. Yes, Riske’s forehand is a weapon, but Swiatek’s forehand is heavy and has great depth in the court.

She also has the better backhand of the two and is the much better mover. Swiatek will be able to track down Riske’s groundstrokes and turn plenty of points in her favor. She will also make Riske uncomfortable with her variety.

Riske won’t be able to be reliant on unforced errors, as Swiatek almost certainly won’t make the 31 unforced errors that Yastremska made against the American.

While this seems like an extreme line, I have to trust Swiatek to get the job done quickly once again.

Pick:  Swiatek -7.5 games (-138)

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