French Open Women’s Quarterfinal Picks | Best Bets For Swiatek vs Gauff, Jabeur vs Haddad Maia
Xinhua News Agency/Getty. Pictured: Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek.
We're just a pair of matches from the final four being set on the women's side of things at the French Open.
We've got a pair of solid matchups on tap for the second day of quarterfinal action as well. World No. 1 Iga Swiatek takes on Coco Gauff in a rematch of last year's final at Roland Garros. The other matchup also features a pair of quality players, with both Ons Jabeur and Beatriz Haddad Maia being inside the top-15 in the world rankings.
Let's get into my French Open women's quarterfinal picks.
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French Open Women's Quarterfinal Picks
Iga Swiatek (-1400) vs Coco Gauff (+700)
6:30 a.m. ET
The marquee matchup of the day from the women's side of things is one some may expect to be a fun one. I, however, am in the other camp. Other than name recognition and a decent first serve, there's very little that makes Gauff more competitive in this particular matchup than many of the other players Swiatek has dispatched with relative ease to this point.
For starters, while her backhand is strong and she can generate decent angles from that side, it doesn't have the requisite brute force or power to hit through Swiatek on slow clay or force her into the kinds of defensive shots that would allow her to stay away from Swiatek getting to the forehand side and taking control of the point.
As for the forehands, Swiatek has one of the most ruthless shots on Tour from that wing on slow clay. Gauff? One of the worst. To make matters worse, it's rather easy to force errors off the American's racquet from that wing, and the world No. 1 can do it like no one else with that intense topspin.
Swiatek's totals have consistently been in the 16.5-game range through the first week of the event. Gauff's serve may be worth a half game or two, but her forehand is arguably even more helpless than those of Swiatek's previous opponents.
To me, that makes this total a major overvaluation of Gauff's abilities simply because of her name. For those that like head-to-head records? Swiatek took just 16 games to beat Gauff in last year's final. While it's a decent indicator, it isn't necessarily predictive. It does, however, demonstrate the matchup vulnerabilities for Gauff.
Picks: Under 18.5 games (-130 via Caesars)
Ons Jabeur (-250) vs Beatriz Haddad Maia (+200)
5 a.m ET
Perhaps overshadowed by the other matchup from the women's draw on Wednesday, don't overlook the first tilt of the day between Jabeur and Haddad Maia.
These women are both top-15, both have decent serves and can both play with power and consistency from the baseline.
Normally I'd be ecstatic at the chance to bet the Brazilian at this price in this matchup.
Her last match, however, has me a bit concerned for her chances. Haddad Maia's fourth round encounter with Sara Sorribes Tormo was the longest match we'd seen on the WTA Tour so far this season. It lasted nearly four hours, despite having a 6-3 set along the way. What was disconcerting, though, was the way Haddad Maia was serving by the end of the match. The velocity was noticeably down – though that could've been a byproduct of nerves and knowing that her opponent couldn't really punish those serves – and that makes me wonder if she's ready for another lengthy battle.
It's also worth noting that Haddad Maia played three-set matches in the second and third rounds as well – despite having chances to close those out sooner.
All in all, I don't make Jabeur as big of a favorite here as the odds would indicate. At the same time, there are potential fatigue concerns for Haddad Maia. I'll back this one to be close, with the possibility that as the match drags on, Jabeur pulls away. That takes the game spread off the table. The over makes the most sense for me, especially at a number like 20.5.
Pick: Over 20.5 games (-110 via DraftKings)