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Jule Niemeier vs. Tatjana Maria Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (July 5)

Jule Niemeier vs. Tatjana Maria Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (July 5) article feature image
Credit:

Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Tatjana Maria.

Niemeier vs. Maria Odds

Niemeier Odds -196
 Maria Odds +160
Over/Under 22.5
Time | TV 8 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

Jule Niemeier continues to impress at Wimbledon this season, withstanding the pressure of playing home-favorite Heather Watson as she beat the Brit 6-2, 6-4 in the round of 16.

Her opponent in the quarterfinals will be fellow countrywoman Tatjana Maria, who fended off two match points and pulled off a massive upset over the in-form No. 12 seed Jelena Ostapenko.

Let’s take a closer look at this battle-of-the-Germans quarterfinal match.

Niemeier Playing With Controlled Aggression

In Niemeier’s win over Watson, she won 69% of her service points and was only broken once, in the only service game all match where she faced a break point.

The German was all over Watson’s serve, winning 49% of her return points and breaking four times in nine return games. Overall, Niemeier had 22 winners against 17 unforced errors.

In every match this tournament, Niemeier has won over 45% of her return points and broken serve at least three times. In addition, in only one of Niemeier’s first four matches has she had a negative winner/unforced error ratio.

In her career, she has only played 13 matches on grass, but is 9-4 in those matches. This grass-court season, Niemeier is 5-2 on the surface, playing with excellent controlled aggression, along with effectively utilizing slices and touch shots to change the rhythm of points.

Niemeier has been fairly efficient when approaching the net, having won 44-of-63 net points this tournament.

The worry for Niemeier is that she’s not particularly nimble on court, as she is a bit stiff in her movement. So, while she does have good touch and a decent slice game, opponents that can move her around and take her out of her comfort zone do find success.

Maria Slices Her Way To Quarterfinals

Maria played a complete match against Ostapenko. She won 78% of her first-serve points and hit nine aces. Maria was proactive on return, going after Ostapenko’s weaker serves. She won 44% of her return points, breaking Ostapenko on six occasions.

She hit 23 winners compared to 15 unforced errors against the Latvian. Overall, for the entire tournament, Maria has hit an impressive 72 winners against 63 unforced errors. She’s also held every opponent at Wimbledon so far to under 50% of their second-serves won.

Maria has had a particularly tough road to the quarterfinals. In her last three rounds, she had to beat three top-30 seeds. To defeat Sorana Cirstea, Maria Sakkari and Ostapenko in succession without a let down is an impressive feat.

The German is currently an impressive 55-26 as a professional on grass, with her game working perfectly on the surface. Maria utilizes heavy slices on both her forehand and backhand, which are particularly effective on the low-bouncing grass.

However, Maria isn’t just aimlessly hitting slices to the center of the court. She’s tactically placing her slices around the court, moving opponents both side-to-side, but also with different depths of her groundstrokes.

She is not afraid to put additional pressure on her opponents by coming in behind the slice, winning 72-of-119 net points at Wimbledon so far.

Betting Value

Niemeier has played conventional, baseline-centric players so far this tournament, so this will be a change of pace. She will take Niemeier out of her comfort zone in a way that her previous opponents couldn’t.

While Niemeier plays with great controlled aggression and can control the baseline with her groundstrokes, that becomes less important against Maria, who will make this an unconventional match.

Maria will also force Niemeier to hit some tough, low-margin passing shots with how often she approaches the net behind her cutting slices.

It’s important to note that while Niemeier’s overall Elo rating is over 150 points better than Maria’s, their grass-court Elo’s are within six points of one another.

Don’t sleep on Maria in this match.

Pick:  Maria +3.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)

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