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Marie Bouzkova vs. Caroline Garcia Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (July 3)

Marie Bouzkova vs. Caroline Garcia Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (July 3) article feature image
Credit:

Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Marie Bouzkova.

Looking for betting analysis of Bouzkova’s quarterfinal match? Click here!

Bouzkova vs. Garcia Odds

Bouzkova Odds -114
 Garcia Odds -105
Over/Under 22.5
Time | TV 6 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

Marie Bouzkova is showcasing that she can play at a high level on grass, defeating grass-court specialist Alison Riske 6-2, 6-3 in the third round.

But, standing in her way of the quarterfinals is Caroline Garcia. Garcia is currently on an eight-match winning streak and will be a formidable opponent for the Czech.

Let’s take a closer look at this round of 16 match.

Bouzkova A Wall From The Baseline

In Bouzkova’s only warmup match for Wimbledon, she lost to Shelby Rogers in Eastbourne. However, since arriving in London, Bouzkova has kicked her game into a new gear.

In her latest win over Riske, Bouzkova won 67% of her service points and saved all four break points she faced. On return, she was a menace, winning 48% of her return points, including 59% on Riske’s second serve.

Bouzkova was solid from the baseline, hitting 16 winners and only 11 unforced errors in the match. In fact, both of Bouzkova’s previous matches at the All England Club, against Danielle Collins and Ann Li, also saw her have a positive winner/unforced error ratio.

She has now improved her career grass-court record to 15-12. However, Bouzkova’s level of play this week doesn’t reflect that more modest grass record, as the Czech is playing terrific tennis in London.

Bouzkova is an absolute wall from the baseline, clearly understanding how to move on grass. She is flying around the court, getting countless tough rally balls, not only back in play, but with depth and precision.

However, when given the chance, Bouzkova can step up in the court and crack the ball. She’s hit a combined 58 winners this week for a reason. In addition, Bouzkova doesn’t love moving forward to the net, but has won 32-of-47 points net points this tournament so far.

Garcia Keeps Winning

As mentioned before, Caroline Garcia is currently on an eight-match winning streak. In the week prior to Wimbledon, the Frenchwoman won the title in Bad Homburg, beating Bianca Andreescu from a set and a break down in the final.

This week, Garcia has continued her winning ways. In the third round, Garcia defeated Shuai Zhang in a tight 7-6(3), 7-6(5) victory. Garcia won 71% of her first-serve points and was only broken twice in the match. On return, Garcia won 38% of her return points against  Zhang’s big first serve. She hit 39 winners compared to only 27 unforced errors.

Garcia hasn’t had an easy road to the round of 16 either. In addition to beating former quarterfinalist Zhang, Garcia also had to beat British number one Emma Raducanu in the second round.

In every match at Wimbledon so far, Garcia has won over 70% of her first-serve points and, like Bouzkova, had a positive winner/unforced error ratio.

It’s that control over her groundstrokes that has the biggest difference this grass-court season. While the Frenchwoman was slumping, she would hit the ball hard, but without a clear game plan, leading to a boatload of unforced errors.

Garcia has played this grass season with a clear game plan to attack and be aggressive, but with a more measured approach.

Garcia is now an  impressive 45-24 as a professional and 10-2 on the season on the turf.

However, she took a medical timeout yesterday for an issue with her left thigh and hip area and this will be her ninth match across two countries in two weeks.

Betting Value

Fatigue along with wear-and-tear are certainly issues to be concerned with for Garcia, who seemed to running out of steam against Zhang before finishing off the match just in time.

The exact player that Garcia doesn’t want to play when starting to wear down is an in-form Marie Bouzkova. The Czech’s returning ability and determination to keep points alive will counteract Garcia’s aggressive play and force the weary Frenchwoman into longer points.

Bouzkova’s defensive ability and consistent depth will cause Garcia to start over hitting on her groundstrokes as well, even when the opening isn’t there.

This will be a match too far for Garcia.

Pick:  Bouzkova ML (-114)

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