Mikael Ymer vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas French Open Odds, Preview, Prediction (May 28)

Mikael Ymer vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas French Open Odds, Preview, Prediction (May 28) article feature image

Tim Clayton/Getty. Pictured: Stefanos Tsitsipas hits a practice serve at the French Open.

  • Stefanos Tsitsipas is a massive favorite to beat Mikael Ymer and advance to the fourth round.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the third round match, offering his stylistic analysis of the contest.
  • See how Ducey is betting the Tsitsipas vs. Ymer showdown.

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Mikael Ymer vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds

Ymer Odds+1200
Tsitsipas Odds-3500
Total29.5 (-105 / -115)
Time10 a.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has had to work hard to reach the third round at Roland Garros. He came back from two sets to love down against Lorenzo Musetti before saving set points in a fourth-set tiebreaker against Zdenek Kolar, then ultimately took that before it could reach a fifth.

Now, he'll have another tricky opponent to deal with in Mikael Ymer. How do we bet this one? Let's get into that.

Ymer Not Equipped For This Matchup

If there's one guy Ymer doesn't want to see right now, it's Tsitsipas. The young Swedish player was in the midst of a disastrous seven-match losing streak before regaining his form at Roland Garros with a pair of wins over James Duckworth and Daniel Evans.

Just as soon as that momentum came, it may go. Ymer has drawn Tsitsipas three times in their respective careers and he's yet to take a set off the Greek. He was taken out by Tsitsipas 6-1, 6-3 in Marseille two years ago, 6-4, 6-1, 6-1 at the Australian Open last year and 6-2, 6-4, 6-3 at the very same event this year.

None of those matches were on clay, though it's rather hard to say that's an advantage for Ymer. His best work has come on hard courts, particularly indoor hard courts, where he's 71-39 for his career across all levels. He's just 2-4 on clay this year after going 10-7 on the surface last year. Those aren't promising numbers when you're getting set to step to the World No. 4.

The 23-year-old plays an unorthodox style of tennis, possessing no weapons and instead getting to where he is today with consistent defense and depth on his groundstrokes. While he's a hard guy to hit through, he's certainly not impossible to get a ball by.

Tsitsipas Confident Despite Overall Struggles

As noted above, Tsitsipas absolutely owns Ymer. While I initially had some concerns here given the fact that Ymer plays a very similar brand of tennis to Kolar, the head-to-head has done well to squash any fears.

What Ymer doesn't have that Kolar does have is form. What neither of those guys have is talent, which Musetti has — in bundles.

If you're not following, I think there is a pretty good reason Tsitsipas labored so much in his first two matches — Musetti is a rising star on tour and a dangerous clay-courter. Kolar entered the Tsitsipas match on something of a tear with just two losses in his past nine matches.

Tsitsipas didn't do anything differently against Kolar — his forehand was still finding the mark and his serve was passable. He just had to dig deep to get out of that match in four considering his opponent was not missing.

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Betting Value

Ymer isn't playing the level of tennis we've seen him play at times over the past two years and I think it's no coincidence his losing streak kicked into full gear when we hit the clay. Some of the losses he's had this season — to Mirza Basic and Nerman Fatic in particular — are downright terrible. The two wins here in Paris can't help us forget about those matches.

When Ymer was near the height of his powers, he was unable to bother Tsitsipas, so why would this version fare any better? Tsitsipas is still elite on a hardcourt, but it's also important to remember he's a notch above on the dirt. I think Ymer has another thing coming here.

Pick: Under 29.5 Games (-115)

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