Monday US Open Odds, Analysis: Marino Will Struggle With Frech (August 29)

Monday US Open Odds, Analysis: Marino Will Struggle With Frech (August 29) article feature image

Press Focus/Getty. Pictured: Magdalena Frech.

  • The US Open rolls on with two afternoon matches.
  • David Gertler has identified betting value in both, including one featuring Rebecca Marino and Magdalena Frech.
  • Read on for his best bets and previews.

The first round of the US Open is here! It's been an exciting season of tennis at the Majors and we're down to the last Slam of the season.

I will be keeping my eye on two matches on Monday's slate.

Read on for my US Open best bets and previews.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.

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Daria Saville (-500) vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse (+333)

2:15 p.m. ET

Daria Saville has had a successful summer hard-court swing, going 6-2. This includes a semifinal appearance in Washington and a Granby final.

Saville's game is based on her return and suffocating baseline play. She gets a lot of returns into play and it's hard for opponents to hit through the Aussie.

Saville is solid from both wings and moves the ball around the court particularly well with her heavy forehand. Her movement is also superb.

It's no surprise that Saville is 19-9 on hard courts this season and 204-141 in her career.

Elena-Gabriela Ruse hasn't won a match since Birmingham and has lost eight-of-nine matches. In addition, Ruse recently had surgery on her hand on August 10th, giving her very little preparation time for the US Open.

While Ruse has gone 10-6 this season on hard courts, she's just 13-16 overall on the year. At her best, Ruse can control the baseline and hit with controlled aggression from both wings, while also having the rally tolerance to stay in rallies for as long as she needs.

However, this season Ruse has bailed out of many rallies early and struggled with her consistency.

Ruse's health is in question and she hasn't had a lot of time to prepare for this tournament, which is especially concerning given the heat and humidity during New York City's summers. Ruse will be undercooked coming into this match.

But, even if the Romanian was 100% healthy, this is a bad matchup for her in her current form. Ruse has been erratic from the baseline this season and Saville feasts on players like this. The Aussie will be able to draw out rallies, move Ruse around the court, and force her to press on her groundstrokes.

A flood of unforced errors will follow and Saville should win this match comfortably.

Pick: Under 20.5 Games (-145 via BetMGM)

Rebecca Marino (-180) vs. Magdalena Frech (+140)

2:15 p.m. ET

Rebecca Marino has gone 6-4 during the summer hard-court swing, with quarterfinal appearances in Washington and Granby. With that said, Marino's second-round victory over Jasmine Paolini was the only win of these six victory against a player currently within the world's top 100. Marino is 1-3 against top-100 players during this stretch.

She has a huge first serve and plays with controlled aggression from the baseline. Marino has easy power on her groundstrokes and dictates play effectively. Her game is suited well for hard courts, as she's gone 239-133 in her career and 28-10 this season on hard.

However, crafty players that can take Marino out of her comfort zone at the baseline and force her into long rallies are a concern for the Canadian.

Magdalena Frech has gone 4-4 since getting back onto the hard courts following Wimbledon. Frech made second round of Granby this week, but was unlucky to run into top-seed Daria Kasatkina, losing that match in straight sets.

Frech has an all-court game. She's consistent from the baseline, but also employs slices effectively and utilizes the whole court to take opponents out of their comfort zones. The Pole is quick around the court and less-consistent opponents often struggle to hit through her.

Historically, Frech has also been successful on hard courts, with a 139-97 record as a professional.

Frech beat Marino twice last season and it's a good matchup for the Pole. She is consistent from the baseline and absorbs power well, not allowing Marino to end points quickly with winners.

Her slices also keep the ball out of the six-foot Marino's strike zone,  forcing her to really bend down on her groundstrokes and making her uncomfortable. In addition, Frech's ability to utilize the whole court will force Marino off the baseline and test her movement, which is not a strength.

Pick: Frech +2.5 Games (-105 via PointsBet)

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