Monday Wimbledon Odds & Picks | Tsitsipas vs Eubanks, Medvedev vs Lehecka
John Walton/Getty. Pictured: Chris Eubanks.
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Wimbledon's star-studded second week isn't just happening on the women's side. Just about all of the top seeds from the men's draw are also through to at least the fourth round, and a former finalist in Matteo Berrettini joins them to spice things up further.
Let's take a look at a pair of matches that showcases two of the top-five men in the world, as Stefanos Tsitsipas battles with Christopher Eubanks and Daniil Medvedev grapples with Jiri Lehecka.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Monday Wimbledon Odds & Picks
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-325) vs Christopher Eubanks (+255)
7:30 a.m. ET
What a draw for Tsitsipas to this point. It's no secret that the Greek No. 1 has his struggles on grass courts. The return of serve and his backhand are just so vulnerable with the lower bounce and quicker pace. Without the ability to hit a block or chip return from that wing, it's liable to be picked on by his opposition – and considering how many players do just that, the book is out on him.
Fortunately for him, he drew a declining Dominic Thiem in the first round and had his match postponed thanks to the local curfew in the second round against 36-year-0ld Andy Murray. Those matches both saw him squeak through in five sets. Then, he took on clay-court specialist Laslo Djere and he made a meal of the second set in that one, while failing to look dominant in either of the sets that bookended that match as well.
Now he takes on Mallorca champion and an in-form Eubanks. Formerly seen as someone with just a serve and the ability to close points on his first shot after said serve, Eubanks has improved his baseline game this season dramatically. We first caught a glimpse of it in Miami, and we're seeing it again the last few weeks, with a second-week appearance at Wimbledon to back up the aforementioned title run.
I'd also go as far as to say that his one-handed backhand isn't as vulnerable on these courts as Tsitsipas'. It's by no means a weapon out there, but it held up well against Christopher O'Connell last time out.
I understand Tsitsipas may be a big step up in terms of quality, but with these guys both being huge servers and relatively poor on return, I can't see how this market on who wins is so lopsided. This may not be a down-the-line 50/50 proposition, but it sure as heck isn't a 70/30 one either.
Looking at the total games market set well into the 40s, the implication here is at least four sets, with all of them expected to be tight. In what profiles as a close match, I'll gladly side with the big underdog.
Picks: Eubanks ML (+255 via FanDuel)
Daniil Medvedev (-390) vs Jiri Lehecka (+300)
8 a.m. ET
Over to the other top-five player that hasn't exactly been lights out in the past on grass. Now, I do believe Medvedev is a bit more competent than Tsitsipas, but it's not like he's quite mastered the surface either.
Another Mallorca champion in the past, Medvedev has looked decent, though far from his best to this point at Wimbledon. He did, however, really come around against Marton Fucsovics last round. After a tough first set that saw him picked apart tactically, the big Russian began charging to net before his opponent had the chance and really cleaned up what was a shockingly sloppy opener. The result? Closing it out rather efficiently in four sets.
Now he plays the powerful, yet volatile Czech, who is coming off a five-set win over American Tommy Paul and is looking like he did in Australia – as though he's about to break into the top tier of the men's game.
The problem for me here is that Medvedev matches up very well with him. He's not put off by pace and loves to employ his rock-solid defensive game against opponents that can lose the plot and spew unforced errors.
The other way to trouble Medvedev? Come to net and take his legs out of the equation. That's something Lehecka has been doing decently in previous rounds. He came forward and was relatively successful at converting those approaches into points against Sebastian Ofner, Francisco Cerundolo and Paul.
Against the last two guys with decent passing shots on grass, however, it's a different story. Carlos Alcaraz held him under a 55% success rate at the net, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won over half the points that saw him come to net.
Lehecka may be looking to employ that tactic more often, but against talented players that are adept at passing their opponents, he's still vulnerable in that sense.
Pick: Medvedev -4.5 games (-135 via DraftKings)
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