Monte Carlo Semifinal Odds, Picks, Predictions: Fritz & Rune Capable of Securing Upsets
Valery Hache/Getty. Pictured: Holger Rune.
Another one of the Monte Carlo favorites bowed out on Friday, as Stefanos Tsitsipas was stunned by Taylor Fritz just a day after Lorenzo Musetti upset Novak Djokovic.
We’re now into the semifinals at the year’s first clay-court Masters event.
Will another big name fall? Can Jannik Sinner continue his run of success and reach another Masters 1000 final? Let’s dive into each of the matchups.
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Monte Carlo Picks & Predictions
Andrey Rublev (-130) vs Taylor Fritz (+100)
7:30 am E.T.
When this week began, I was still unconvinced by Fritz on clay. His first set against Stan Wawrinka did nothing to alleviate those concerns. From then on, however, he really has shown some strong play on the dirt. Other than a first set loss to Jiri Lehecka in his second match, he’s shown his comfort on the clay is certainly better than we’ve seen in the past.
His booming first serve still plays and his forehand can still pierce through the slow conditions to dictate play and finish points. His movement, however, doesn’t look nearly as awkward and his rally tolerance allows him to stick around in far more prolonged points than most other big-serving hard courters.
The result? His first ever semifinal appearance at this tournament. Now he takes on Andrey Rublev – a matchup that should suit.
Rublev also possesses big weapons between his first serve and forehand, but I’d make the case that Fritz is a bit more solid from the baseline, and he has a more reliable backhand wing as well.
The Russian may have the movement edge in this tilt, but when it comes to playing more well-rounded tennis, I have Fritz slightly out front, meaning I have him as the slight favorite here and Rublev as the slight dog.
With Fritz being just at even money, I’m happy to back him here with a standard-sized staking.
Pick: Fritz ML (+100 via Caesars)
Jannik Sinner (-180) vs Holger Rune (+145)
9:30 am E.T.
In what should be the match of the day on the dirt, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune do battle in a battle of top-10 young guns.
With these two a bit younger and more natural clay-court players, we should see some fireworks from the winners of the first and second quarters.
Where Sinner surely has the edge in terms of weapons from the baseline, Rune is the much more efficient mover and quietly has the ability to find a lot of cheap, quick points behind his first serve.
While I’m sure many will love Sinner thanks to his current form and the recent successes in Indian Wells and Miami, I actually don’t mind the Dane here at plus money.
I have him power rated as one of the better players on clay, despite being just 19-years old, and with him able to offset some of the advantages Sinner possesses with his variety, movement and serve, I do think this is closer than the current odds would indicate – and that’s coming from someone with a 12/1 Sinner outright.
Call it a hedge, or call it simply playing a number that is a bit too cheap on a rising star on clay that has looked great this week in his limited action. Either way, I’ll take Rune at the current number.
Picks: Rune ML (+154 via DraftKings)
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