Roland Garros Tuesday Odds & Picks: Zidansek Undervalued Against Liu (May 24)
Alex Pantling/Getty. Pictured: Tamara Zidansek hits a backhand at the Italian Open.
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The first round of Roland Garros has featured incredible tennis so far and two of Tuesday's Roland Garros matches have value that we can exploit.
Read below for two plays from Tuesday at the French Open!
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Claire Liu (-150) vs. Tamara Zidansek (+126)
5 a.m. ET
Claire Liu has played excellent tennis during this clay court season. Last week in Rabat, Liu made the final, but fell to Martina Trevisan 2-6, 1-6.
Before the Rabat final, the American hadn't allowed any of her three opponents to win 50% of their service points against her.
Liu broke 20 times in those three matches, generating 41 break points. Additionally, while Liu was able to generate 10 break points in the final against Trevisan, she was only able to break once all match.
Liu has gone 12-3 during the clay season and won the title at the Paris Challenger, beating Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-3, 6-4. This means that she's played nine matches in the past two weeks, which is a lot of matches before a Slam.
However, when Liu is playing well, she has easy power and aggressive groundstrokes that allow her to control the baseline.
Tamara Zidansek hasn't had the clay season she wanted. Zidansek has gone just 3-4 on clay on the year, losing to Daria Kasatkina 4-6, 3-6 in her most recent match in Rome.
Since Stuttgart, Zidansek hasn't won 50% of her second-serve points in any of her four WTA Tour matches she's played in, getting broken 20 times during the stretch. However, it is worth noting that Zidansek has won 76% of her professional clay-court matches and can play excellent tennis on the dirt.
Zidansek's game perfectly suits the clay surface. Last year's Roland Garros semifinalist has a heavy forehand that she uses to effectively dictate from the baseline. She is able to get great depth and power from this wing and she understands point construction on clay.
While Liu is in great form, she ran out of gas against Trevisan and now has to be ready to take on a great clay courter. Liu has gone deep a couple tournaments in a row now, which will make the Roland Garros recovery tougher.
Zidansek loves playing at Roland Garros and is a natural clay courter. Though she hasn't had the clay season she wanted, playing a tired Liu in the first round is an ideal draw.
Look for Zidansek to drag Liu around the court with her forehand and force the American into more defensive positions on the court than she's comfortable with.
Pick: Zidansek ML (+126 via FanDuel)
Aleksandra Krunic (-185) vs. Kamilla Rakhimova (+140)
6:30 a.m. ET
Aleksandra Krunic had a shaky start to the clay season, but looked in much better form during Roland Garros qualifying. She defeated Reka-Luca Jani 7-5, 6-2 to qualify for the main draw.
Krunic started the clay season 0-2, but has gone 7-2 on the dirt since then. In qualifying, the Serb all three of her opponents to under 55% of their overall service points won and under 50% of their second-serve points. Krunic broke serve 21 times in those three matches.
She has an all-court game. Krunic moves very well and is consistent from both wings. Her variety and touch are outstanding, as her slices and drop shots constantly make her opponents uncomfortable. It's always tough to tell what's coming from her racquet
Kamilla Rakhimova started off strong during the clay season, but tailed off in recent weeks. Rakhimova made the semifinals of Bogota, but has gone just 2-7 since.
Including Bogota, four of Rakhimova's five wins during the clay-court season occurred in at least 2000 feet of altitude. Rakhimova won three matches in Bogota and one in Madrid qualifying. The altitude gave Rakhimova's groundstrokes a little extra pop that she doesn't get otherwise.
Rakhimova plays with decent controlled aggression when she's in a groove.
Despite this, the Russian has struggled with her rally tolerance since the quarterfinals of Bogota and hasn't been able to hit through her opponents.
Rakhimova beat Krunic in Bogota, but that was completely different circumstances. She was playing her best tennis of the season, while Krunic was struggling to gain her footing in the Colombian altitude.
Krunic played great tennis in qualifying and is used to the conditions in Paris, while Rakhimova comes into this match on a slump. She is the more solid player and should allow Rakhimova to self-destruct.
Her variety will also make a shaky Rakhimova even more uncomfortable, as Krunic will use every inch of the court to her advantage.
Pick: Krunic -2.5 games (-135 via BetMGM)
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