There is a lot to like among the eight matches to be played from the men's draw at the US Open on Saturday. I've picked two matches to break down and look at why prices are the way they are and why I think the market has it wrong.
Here are my bets for Machac vs Goffin and Borges vs Mensikin my US Open picks from the men's draw at the US Open tennis tournament.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing US Open tennis matches.
Saturday US Open Schedule, Saturday US Open Picks
Tomas Machac (-180) vs David Goffin (+145)
11 a.m. ET
After fading the veteran unsuccessfully in the opening round, I'm back to step in front of the freight train that is Goffin at the moment. He had a great run in Winston-Salem and has now won two matches in New York City, but I am still not convinced.
His serve has been clicking, despite not having looked all that big, and there have been many moments where he's looked vulnerable in the last few weeks. If not for some terrible play on a slew of break points in the third set, it's likely he would've lost to Jaume Munar in North Carolina (he also trailed by a break in that third set).
Then last round he was two points from being forced into a fifth set by Adrian Mannarino, who has been downright terrible this year. That match also took almost four hours to complete – something that should be noted for a guy that is now 33 years old.
As for Machac, he's got a strong serve and the more powerful baseline game of the two for my money. He's also flown through his first two rounds, beating Fabio Fognini and then upsetting Washington champion Sebastian Korda in straight sets. Now, the latter did see Korda deal with some physical issues, but even prior to that, the Czech was right there with him.
This moneyline should be on the other side of -200 (even with Goffin's form) and the spread should be north of the four game mark.
Pick: Machac -3.5 games (-110 via DraftKings)
Nuno Borges (-185) vs Jakub Mensik (+150)
4:30 p.m. ET
There are several factors to look at when it comes to handicapping tennis. Whether a player is in form or not, the quality of opposition they've had to play, potential injuries, any fatigue spots and matchup discrepancies, among others.
This price seems to be heavily skewed by just one of those factors. Mensik has far more power, a much higher ceiling and has looked good against much tougher opponents this year than Borges has. The caveat? He is coming off a lengthy match last round against Tristan Schoolkate (odd, considering he crushed Felix Auger-Aliassime the round prior – a good reminder not to overreact to a single match, either positively or negatively).
That's about the only reason to price him up as a clear underdog. Perhaps he tires out, but this seems a tad disrespectful for one of the rising young talents in the game. Having played under 6.5 hours in four days now, I think the market is weighing that long match a bit too much (see Evans vs. Navone) and will happily take the underdog. I'll also use a bit of my stake to bet the first set moneyline in case he does struggle to battle if this one ends up stretching beyond the four-hour mark.
Picks: Mensik 1st set ML (+120 via DraftKings) | Mensik ML (+150 via BetRivers)
