Sunday ATP & WTA Odds, Picks | Predictions For Swiatek vs Sabalenka & More
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Aryna Sabalenka.
It’s been an incredible week of tennis in WTA Stuttgart and ATP Banja Luka and we are down to the final two competitors in both events.
I’ve found value on both finals — Swiatek vs Sabalenka and Rublev vs Lajovic.
Read on for my WTA Stuttgart and ATP Banja Luka picks and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Sunday ATP & WTA Odds, Picks
Iga Swiatek (-250) vs Aryna Sabalenka (+190)
7:15 a.m. ET, WTA Stuttgart
Iga Swiatek was fortunate that Ons Jabeur retired from their semifinal matchup, with the Pole leading 3-0. In the quarterfinals, Swiatek beat Karolina Pliskova 4-6, 6-1, 6-2. Swiatek won 72% of her first serves against Pliskova, although she was broken three times. Swiatek won 50% of her return points and broke on six occasions.
Last year’s Roland Garros champion has improved her clay-court record to an incredible 95-14 as a professional. Swiatek typically hits her spots on serve, has heavy groundstrokes and moves well on clay. But, the clay in Stuttgart accentuates Swiatek’s main weakness of getting rushed by power players.
Aryna Sabalenka crushed Anastasia Potapova 6-1, 6-2 to reach the final. Sabalenka won 76% of her first serves and wasn’t broken. The Belarusian won 55% of her return points, breaking four times.
Sabalenka is now a solid 57-40 on clay for her career. While the Belarusian’s rally tolerance has never been elite, which has held her back on clay, she’s improved in that respect this season.
Behind a massive serve for Sabalenka are very powerful groundstrokes. She can take the racquet out of her opponents’ hands.
Swiatek, as has been showcased against Elena Rybakina this season, has struggled when she’s rushed from the baseline and struggles to take charge with her forehand.
The quick, slick conditions in Stuttgart are much more favorable to Sabalenka’s game. The Belarusian has hit another level since mid-way through her quarterfinal victory against Paula Badosa, crushing the ball into precise targets.
Sabalenka can take the racquet out of Swiatek’s hands in a way similar to Rybakina and she looks increasingly comfortable on the Stuttgart clay. Swiatek should be in defensive positions during points far more often than she would like.
Pick: Sabalenka +1.5 sets (-140 via BetMGM)
Andrey Rublev (-390) vs Dusan Lajovic (+265)
8 a.m. ET, ATP Banja Luka
Andrey Rublev defeated Alex Molcan 6-2, 6-4 to reach the final. Rublev won 77% of his first-serve points and was only broken once. The Russian also won 52% of his return points, allowing him to break on five occasions.
Last week’s Monte Carlo champion, is yet to drop a set this week. As a professional, the Russian is an impressive 103-60 on clay. Rublev has a heavy forehand that he hits with controlled aggression. He is able to effectively control the baseline from this wing, although he can also play with power from his backhand side as well. Rublev’s serve is also a strength of his game.
Dusan Lajovic came back to beat Miomir Kecmanovic 5-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 in a marathon match. Lajovic got broken six times and only won 57% of his service points. But, Lajovic won 44% of his return points, breaking six times.
Lajovic improved his career-record on clay to an impressive 364-224. The Serb had an impressive victory over Novak Djokovic in the Banja Luka quarterfinals. He is such a crafty player, utilizing differing depths, angles and slices to take his opponents out of their comfort zones. Lajovic has excellent fitness, counterpunches effectively and recovers especially well to his forehand wing when opponents try to lock him into his backhand corner.
But, Lajovic’s serve is fairly weak, he can be underpowered at times and he’s had to do a lot of running in recent matches.
I think that Lajovic runs out of gas here. He’s had to play some long, physical matches and now has the task of trying to defend against an in-form Rublev.
Rublev should drag Lajovic around the court with his forehand and not allow the Serb to get into advantageous positions to utilize his variety.
He should also get much more on his serve compared to Kecmanovic today, so Lajovic will have less opportunities on return. And, Rublev shouldn’t bail out of rallies as often as Kecmanovic did against Lajovic.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Rublev’s overall Elo is 311.5 points higher than Lajovic’s and his clay Elo is 265.7 points above the Serb’s.
Pick: Lajovic to NOT win a set (-116 via FanDuel)
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