Thursday ATP Paris Odds and Best Bets, Including Casper Ruud and Cameron Norrie (Nov. 4)

Thursday ATP Paris Odds and Best Bets, Including Casper Ruud and Cameron Norrie (Nov. 4) article feature image

Credit: Christophe Archambault, Getty. Casper Ruud hits a backhand at the Rolex Paris Masters.

Wednesday proved to be another pivotal day at the Rolex Paris Masters.

The hopes of reaching the ATP Finals for Cameron Norrie, Hubert Hurkacz and Casper Ruud all saw boosts by virtue of wins or losses suffered by Pablo Carreno Busta, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Jannik Sinner and Diego Schwartzman.

With eight round of 16 matches set to be played, here are my best bets.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on watching tennis matches. 

Cameron Norrie (-137) vs. Taylor Fritz (+110)

7:20 a.m. ET

This matchup pits two players who are in terrific form against each other, with a combined record between the two players of 15-2 in their last 17 matches.

Both sparked their winning runs with impressive showings at the Indian Wells Masters event three weeks ago. Norrie won the tournament while Fritz made the semifinals.

Though the Brit suffered a disappointing defeat to Auger-Aliassime at the Erste Bank Open, he rebounded with two quick wins in Paris, beating Federico Delbonis and Reilly Opelka. Fritz reached the final of the St. Petersburg Open last week, and he won against Lorenzo Sonego and Andrey Rublev to reach this stage.

For Fritz, his run in Russia may work against him, as we've seen a number of players who had success last week struggle already in Paris. St. Pete's champion, Marin Cilic, fell in the second round to Sebastian Korda, and Vienna finalist Frances Tiafoe lost in the first round to Marcos Giron.

The American has played nine matches (including doubles) in the past eight days, but Norrie has only played four. When looking at two players who are in equally impressive form, fitness could play a key edge in determining a winner.

Norrie and Fritz both excel from the baseline, but the rally tolerance of Norrie projects to be a level higher, and it will force Fritz to thrive behind his powerful serve, or he'll be in big trouble. He's hit 15 aces and only two double faults in his first two matches, winning 79% of the points behind his first serve in each.

If he isn't able to post those massive numbers again, the balance shifts towards Norrie. After playing 21 sets of tennis in a week, I expect Fritz to struggle in doing so.

Pick: Norrie -137 via Caesars Sportsbook

Casper Ruud (-360) vs. Marcos Giron (+280)

2:30 p.m. ET

In another matchup of quality ball-strikers, I expect Ruud to assert his dominance.

Giron has put together a stunning week out of nowhere, coming back from 5-2 down in the third set of his first round qualifying match to rattle off four wins. Those victories came against quality opposition that included the likes of Tiafoe, Schwartzman and indoor hard court specialist Norbert Gombos, but he'll need another massive showing to get by Ruud.

The Norwegian's only two losses since the San Diego Open came to Schwartzman — when he was dealing with an injury — and to the red-hot Sinner. Ruud has displayed an impressive ability to be patient in rallies and pounce on any opportunity afforded to him on the forehand wing.

Though Giron's performances have been of serious quality, he's taken advantage of two players who had poor performances. Over 75 combined errors came from Giron's first two opponents, and Ruud won't afford those type of free points. It's going to be on Giron's shoulders to take the initiative and force the issue in points, and I don't trust him to do that.

Back Ruud to get by in two.

Pick: Ruud to Win 2-0 -115 via FanDuel

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