Thursday French Open Picks | Struff vs Bublik, Ruud vs Davidovich Fokina
Eurasia Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Casper Ruud.
The rain won't seem to go away in Paris, but the organizers have done a decent job at making sure the schedule doesn't drag and matches pile up. With that said, let's hope we see the Thursday schedule go off without a hitch. I have a pair of underdogs that could be live on the day in the men's draw. Let's jump in.
Here are my picks for Jan Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik and Casper Ruud vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in my Thursday French Open picks for May 30.
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Thursday French Open Picks
Jan Lennard Struff (-360) vs Alexander Bublik (+280)
8:15 a.m. ET
I'm not a "vibes" handicapper or someone that likes to look at playing at home or smaller, unquantifiable metrics that are subject to user error in a big way, but when it comes to Bublik, it's hard to ignore those kinds of things.
I was pretty impressed with the way he battled through a night match after a day full of rain against a Frenchman on clay. In other words, the slowest conditions possible with a hostile environment for someone that has packed it in in much more desirable conditions in the past.
There's no need to try and convince people about the Kazakh's talent. It's apparent to anyone whose watched him play at his best for even 10 minutes. He has a huge serve, nice groundstrokes and when he's engaged in a match, his movement and defending for someone his height are incredibly impressive.
The bottom line is he's not significantly worse than Struff, even on a surface he's not exactly at home on. Last week in Lyon, Bublik grinded and hustled as much as I've seen from him in a long three set win against Pavel Kotov. He reached his first ever semifinal on clay and backed it up with a straight sets victory in the opening round.
I'm going to do something dangerous here and believe that he's motivated this week. Either way, this price is cheap enough that I can't pass up a wager for him to move on.
Pick: Bublik ML (+280 via FanDuel)
Casper Ruud (-555) vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+375)
11 a.m. ET
Backing Bublik and Davidovich Fokina in the same article is not for the faint of heart. Luckily, the numbers on each match are pricing these guys up near the absolute bottom of their abilities. Another mercurial player with boatloads of talent, Davidovich Fokina is someone that rarely shows value as a favorite, but when you get numbers like this it's hard to pass up taking a flyer.
With the moneyline as high as it is, we end up getting a total down in the 35-game range. This still means that in all likelihood we'll need him to take a set, but I'm much more inclined to back this number at -111 than the +2.5 sets price of -150 in the market.
There's no doubting that Ruud has had a great clay season, has had tremendous success at Roland Garros and is one of the game's elite clay courters, but since starting off his campaign on the red stuff on an absolute tear, he's come back to earth in recent times.
Losses to Felix Auger Aliassime and Miomir Kecmanovic aren't the end of the world, but they're certainly head scratchers for the Monte Carlo finalist and Barcelona champion.
He then needed a trio of three setters to get past Sebastian Ofner, Sebastian Baez and Flavio Cobolli to win his third trophy in Geneva.
Nothing from the last six weeks of tennis indicates that he's been as dominant as this number would suggest. Throw in the Spaniard's ability to stick with anyone on his day, and I make this number much closer to 36 or 36.5.
Pick: Over 34.5 games (-111 via BetMGM)
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