Tuesday Afternoon ATP Odds and Analysis: Fade Tired Legs in Second Day of Action (Nov. 2)
Credit: Pascal Guyot, Getty. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina celebrates at the Open Sud de France.
With a thorough first round slate at the Rolex Paris Masters set to be concluded on Tuesday, there were far too many matches to limit to just one article.
The theme in this piece will be different than the first. Though underdogs are the name of the game, these are predicated on regression from players who have had major success over the past couple of weeks.
Here’s how I’ll be fading some tired legs in Paris.
Match times are subject to change.
Diego Schwartzman (-365) vs. John Millman (+285)
8:40 a.m. ET
While this play isn’t necessarily predicated on playing time over the past couple of weeks, Schwartzman spent about six hours on court at the Erste Bank Open last week while Millman played about three and a half hours of tennis in St. Petersburg.
One of the fittest players on tour, the Aussie is more than capable of challenging Schwartzman in Paris. With four wins in his last six matches, Millman has been playing well, and this matchup bodes well for him.
Schwartzman achieved his career-best result in Paris last year, reaching the quarterfinals. Prior to 2020, he had only made it past the second round once. The fast indoor conditions aren’t favorable towards a player like Schwartzman who is reliant on dictating rallies without a big serve.
While Millman doesn’t necessarily have the biggest serve himself, it’s more impactful than Schwartzman’s, and he’s shown in the past that he can hold his ground in rallies with the consistent Argentinian. In 2020, on Schwartzman’s preferred surface of clay, Millman lost to the world number 15 in a tight 6-4 7-6 match.
With conditions favoring him more this time and both players coming in to the match with a decent run of form, it’s worth taking a shot on Millman to contend well.
Pick: 0.5u John Millman to win a set -110 | 0.5u John Millman +285 via FanDuel
Marin Cilic (-185) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+150)
10 a.m. ET
Here’s where the strategy of fading players who have grinded over the past two weeks comes into play. While Davidovich Fokina has only played three matches and seven sets in the past two weeks, Cilic has played 10 matches and 24 sets.
Though he’d typically match up really well with the Spaniard, Cilic is going to have to get out to a fast start if he wants to avoid a rough position. He comes into the match with two ATP finals in the past two weeks, but this is going to be a very difficult match.
Davidovich Fokina is one of the most uncomfortable players to deal with on tour. He’ll play 20-shot point after 20-shot point with ease, and it’s going to force Cilic to sustain high-level serving and power one-two combinations.
If the duo begin to engage in extended rallies, the balance shifts heavily towards Davidovich Fokina, who is a better ball striker and comes into the match as fresh as he could be.
Cilic and Davidovich Fokina’s only meeting came last year on an indoor hard court surface, where Davidovich Fokina defeated the Croatian in three.
With these pieces of context being considered, getting him at this price is an absolute steal.
Pick: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +150 via PointsBet
Frances Tiafoe (-200) vs. Marcos Giron (+155)
11:20 a.m. ET
Another player who found massive success last week was Frances Tiafoe. The American reached the final of the Erste Bank Open, getting through big names such as Stefanos Tsitsipas, Jannik Sinner and Diego Schwartzman before losing to Alexander Zverev.
He’s not playing someone with the greatest name-recognition on Tuesday, but fellow American Giron is going to be a tough out. He survived a brutal first round qualifying encounter with Gilles Simon after facing a deficit of 5-2 in the third set, and he got an impressive win against Norbert Gombos to follow it up.
Giron plays with great depth off of both wings, and it could pose problems for a player like Tiafoe who enjoys when the ball sits up in his strike zone for him to tee off on. Tiafoe is going to have to expend additional effort to adjust to Giron’s style, and that won’t be easy after playing seven matches and 18 sets in Austria.
With Giron, you have another chance to back a solid player who has his legs fully under him. Tiafoe is a natural fade in this situation.
Pick: Marcos Giron +155 via BetMGM