Tuesday ATP Tennis Odds and Analysis: Two Early Morning Bets in Paris with Value (Nov. 2)
Credit: Vaughn Ridley, Getty. James Duckworth sets up after returning a shot.
After a hectic first day of tennis at the Paris Masters, there are over 15 matches on Tuesday.
With another big day on the horizon, it’s time to jump into the matches in the morning slate that I believe are prime for upsets.
Here’s how I’m betting two underdogs.
Match times are subject to change. For tips on watching tennis matches, read here.
Roberto Bautista Agut (-330) vs. James Duckworth (+260)
6:00 a.m. ET
Duckworth has lost the last two matches that he’s contested, but those results don’t tell the story of the level that he’s been playing at.
The defeats came against Karen Khachanov and Jan-Lennard Struff, two players who are in very solid form. In both cases, Duckworth lost key points that could have significantly impacted the result of the match. He’ll have a chance to right the wrongs of those defeats in this contest.
Bautista Agut enters the match with a lone win in his last three matches (with the win coming against an out-of-form Mackenzie McDonald). Though the Spaniard looked sturdy from the baseline against Marin Cilic and Marton Fucsovics, his serve doesn’t operate as a weapon, which could hurt him on this surface.
The Australian has had a particularly solid year on indoor hard courts, with seven wins coming in the last three events he’s played at the ATP level. On the fast surface that Paris maintains, Duckworth is going to love the conditions, and he could pressure Bautista Agut in rallies.
If Duckworth’s serve is firing, he’s going to cause major problems for Bautista Agut, who won’t be able to take the same initiative in his own service games.
Cautiously back Duckworth to challenge RBA at a high level.
Pick: 0.5u Duckworth to win a set -120 | 0.5u Duckworth +260 via FanDuel
Karen Khachanov (-330) vs. Mikael Ymer (+250)
7:20 a.m. ET
Khachanov is another player who has excelled in recent events, but losses to Aslan Karatsev and Cilic didn’t allow him to take home any hardware. He’ll have his hands full against a great ball-striker in Ymer.
The Swede had to battle in his first round qualifying match with Carlos Taberner, but he boat-raced Andreas Seppi to reach the first round of the main draw. Ymer hasn’t notched a main draw win in three events, but that isn’t due to a lack of ability.
Ymer has the capability to hang in rallies with Khachanov and grind from the baseline with patience, and all it will take for the 23-year old to find his footing in the match is for Khachanov to get just a bit loose.
If the Russian falls into old habits of trying to outhit a solid opponent, Ymer could enter periods where he’ll force Khachanov into uncomfortable rallies.
The question for Ymer is which version of the talented youngster will show up. If it’s the one whom we saw between the months of late July and early September, he’ll be in great shape. If it’s the one who has been struggling as of late, he could struggle with depth and be pushed deep behind the baseline, where things will get very difficult.
My money is on the former, and I’m expecting a battle.
Pick: 0.5u Ymer to win a set -115 | Ymer +250 via DraftKings
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