Tuesday US Open Picks & Predictions | Arnaldi vs Kubler, Harris vs Pella

Tuesday US Open Picks & Predictions | Arnaldi vs Kubler, Harris vs Pella article feature image

Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images. Pictured: Guido Pella.

The first day of US Open action is behind us, but the whirlwind from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center continues on Tuesday.

Another slew of matches is set to be played as the field is whittled down from 128 in each singles draw down to 64. Let's take a look at a pair of men's matches that I think present excellent betting opportunity from Tuesday's action.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing tennis matches.

Tuesday U.S. Open Cincinnati Picks

Matteo Arnaldi (-120) vs Jason Kubler (+100) 

11 a.m. ET

As an avid fan of Challenger Tour tennis, I completely understand the love for Matteo Arnaldi. He's definitely one to watch in the coming years, and I think he can translate his game from clay courts to hard.

That said, this price point is a bit much at this stage of his career. Jason Kubler is a far more established hard courter, and he also has much more experience playing in best-of-five set matches.

I'd also make the case that the Italian has struggled against ATP Tour-quality competition on this surface in 2023.

Arnaldi has one Challenger title, but the path to that trophy wasn't one packed with players who offered much resistance, and outside of that, his best win has come against Aleksandar Kovacevic.

The Aussie may not be a world-beater, but the fact is he's an established tour pro, with a flat-hitting style that is well suited for hard courts. He also has  no stamina or endurance issues.

Kubler may not have head-turning power on his groundstrokes, but he's by no means underpowered.

I'll take Kubler, who I have winning this match well over 50% of the time, making even money a lovely price to snatch up.

Pick: Kubler ML (+100 via PointsBet)

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Lloyd Harris (-263) vs Guido Pella (+210) 

4 p.m. ET

Much like I did for Cincinnati during the Masters 1000 event there, I'll be looking to fade the big-serving Lloyd Harris.

I'm not convinced he's anywhere near his old form, and Guido Pella isn't as much of a clay-court specialist as I think the market makes him out to be.

Let's start with the South African. Since returning from injury, Harris has struggled to find form. He came back with a bang in Nonthaburi on the Challenger Tour (against relatively weak fields), indicating he may have been well ahead of schedule. After a physical issue forced him to withdraw prior to a semifinal in Spain, however, he's gone back to posting suboptimal results.

Harris managed to turn some heads prior to Wimbledon on grass, but the sustained success just hasn't been seen from the 26-year-old. His serve and forehand are never in question, but when either of those shots go haywire, he has been abysmal to say the least.

Throw in a best-of-five set encounter and someone who is incredibly consistent, a strong mover and a lefty who can loop forehands crosscourt into his weaker backhand all day and I'm happy to oppose Harris at a very cheap price.

Pick: Pella ML (+210 via FanDuel)

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