Wednesday ATP Tennis Odds and Picks Including Carlos Alcaraz and Dan Evans Matches (Nov. 10)

Wednesday ATP Tennis Odds and Picks Including Carlos Alcaraz and Dan Evans Matches (Nov. 10) article feature image
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Credit: Tiziana Fabi, Getty. Brandon Nakashima stretches for a backhand at the ATP Next Gen Finals.

The first round of matches in the group stage of the ATP Next Gen Finals didn’t disappoint, and there are a number of quality matchups on the schedule for Wednesday.

Eight matches are set to be played in Stockholm as well, adding to the deep slate of tennis.

Here’s where I see value in the matchups.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on watching tennis matches.

Dan Evans (-110) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-110)

6:00 a.m. ET

There’s a reason that this match is not being played on center court. Each player hasn’t been able to play quality tennis for weeks, but in the last ATP event of the season for the duo, they’ll be looking to go out with some confidence.

Evans enters the second-round match having lost consecutive matches to Diego Schwartzman, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Bublik, though he really should have won the third of the lot. With that being said, the Brit’s results look much worse than his performances indicate.

He was up a set and a break against Schwartzman, and it’s hard to fault him for his loss to the in-form Alcaraz. Prior to the three matches, he found an impressive win against Kei Nishikori and battled well with eventual Indian Wells champion Cameron Norrie. A few periods of lost focus have killed Evans, and a slight correction will allow him to thrive in Stockholm.

Davidovich Fokina has been prone in recent events to the same issue of his level dropping in key moments, but his losses have been far more clear-cut. All four of his most recent losses have come in two sets, and he’s looked completely lost at times.

A player like Evans has the patience and defensive ability to draw errors from Davidovich Fokina at a consistent rate, and his serving should generate free points at a much higher clip than the Spaniard.

Evans has a 1+ ace-to-double fault ratio on the year and has won 72% of the points behind his first serve while Davidovich Fokina has a sub-one ace-to-double fault ratio and a 66% first serve points won rate.

Back Evans in this favorable spot.

Pick: Daniel Evans -110 via Bet365

Carlos Alcaraz (-200) vs. Brandon Nakashima (+150)

9:20 a.m. ET

Another good spot to look at comes in Milan, where the solid American Nakashima takes on Alcaraz.

Though not as polished or talented at this point as Alcaraz, Nakashima excels on fast surfaces thanks to his timing and efficient strokes. The 20-year old already has two Challenger-level titles on indoor hard courts and an overall record of 19-3 on the surface. If anyone is capable of being relaxed and composed against Alcaraz, it’s really only Nakashima and Sebastian Korda.

Alcaraz has only played nine career matches on indoor hard courts, and though he’s already shown that he’s more than capable of competing well on the surface (and pretty much every one), he doesn’t have the experience that Nakashima does.

Further, Nakashima has shown that he has the weapons to compete with Alcaraz, evidenced by the pair’s three-set meeting in Portugal that went to Alcaraz.

Look for the underdog to contend well on a court that should suit him well. Particularly with the rules in Milan that favor high variance situations, the price on Nakashima is excellent.

Pick: Brandon Nakashima +150 via BetMGM

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