Wednesday US Open Betting Analysis & Previews: Pegula Will Test Swiatek’s Rally Tolerance (September 7)
Sarah Stier, Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Jessica Pegula, Iga Swiatek.
The quarterfinals continue at the US Open with two more fascinating women’s matches on Wednesday.
I’ve found betting value on both matches for us to exploit, including the intriguing matchup between World No. 1 Iga Swiatek and American Jessica Pegula.
Read on for my best bets and previews.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Iga Swiatek (-225) vs. Jessica Pegula (+170)
7 p.m. ET
Swiatek survived a test against Jule Niemeier, beating the German 2-6, 6-4, 6-0. Swiatek won 54% of her return points and broke serve seven times.
However, the Pole won just 52% of her first serves and hit only 19 winners versus 31 unforced errors.
Swiatek has cooled off after her 37-match winning streak earlier this season, going 2-2 in her US Open, hard-court warm-up events. She’s had a negative winner-to-unforced error ratio in every match so far in New York.
As shown by her 34-5 hard-court record this season, Swiatek is still a huge threat on the surface. She has a heavy, well-placed forehand and her backhand has become more steady in 2022. Swiatek just lost some of the precision and consistency that she had earlier this year.
Jessica Pegula defeated Petra Kvitova 6-3, 6-2 in the round of 16. Pegula made 75% of her first serves, winning 68% of those first-serve points. In addition, Pegula was excellent on return, winning 61% of her return points, including 53% on Kvitova’s big first-serve.
The American got a lot of returns into play and only hit 13 unforced errors all match.
Pegula is now 10-3 during the summer hard-court swing and 22-11 on hard in 2022. Pegula is getting consistent depth on her groundstrokes, having hit only 61 combined unforced errors in New York so far.
Swiatek’s level is dipping, whereas Pegula is playing high-level tennis at the right time. Swiatek will try to dictate with her forehand, but this won’t be successful, as the American has done such a great job of holding onto the baseline, staying consistent and placing the ball where she wants.
Pegula will get a lot of balls into Swiatek’s weaker backhand and as she did against Kvitova, she will not give away many free points herself. This will cause the Pole to press on her groundstrokes and overhit, as has often been the case since her winning streak.
Pick: Pegula +3.5 Games (-110 via PointsBet)
Aryna Sabalenka (-140) vs. Karolina Pliskova (+115)
1 p.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka came back to beat Danielle Collins 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the round of 16.
Sabalenka won 51% of her return points and broke six times. However, she will want to improve on her own serve, as Sabalenka won 60% of her first serves and hit eight double faults.
The Belarusian has been fairly clean from the ground this tournament, with 121 winners compared to 98 unforced errors. However, she hasn’t won two-thirds of her first serves in any match so far in New York.
Sabalenka plays high-risk tennis, hitting massive groundstrokes and trying to overpower her opposition. However, she can sometimes struggle with her serve, rally tolerance and variety.
Karolina Pliskova defeated Victoria Azarenka in a tough three-setter, 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-2. Pliskova won 45% of her return points, including 59% on Azarenka’s second serve, and broke six times.
However, the normally big-serving Czech will certainly look to improve on her 58% service points won and seven double faults.
Pliskova is now 10-3 during the summer hard-court swing and is 366-191 as a professional on hard. She is known for her big serve, but it’s been the former US Open finalist’s baseline game that has blossomed recently.
Pliskova’s had a positive winner/unforced error ratio in her last three matches, counterpunching particularly well. The Czech’s depth is terrific and she’s hitting precise winners when an opening presents itself.
Neither player is serving particularly well, so this match will likely come down to the baseline. Sabalenka will look to take the initiative in rallies and try to dictate play. However, given how well Pliskova is defending, she will not be able to hit through her in the same way she’s hit through other recent opponents.
The Czech has also shown that she has the controlled aggression to step up in the court and force Sabalenka to play defense. But unlike previous opponents such as Kaia Kanepi or Collins, she’s not solely reliant on her offensive capabilities to succeed.
Pick: Pliskova ML (+115 via BetMGM)