Wimbledon First Round Odds, Analysis & Predictions: Best Bets For Baez-Daniel & Paire-Halys (June 27)
Luke Walker/Getty. Pictured: Taro Daniel.
- Benoit Paire squares off with Quentin Halys at Wimbledon and Taro Daniel will meet Sebastian Baez.
- Avery Zimmerman offers his thoughts on each first round match.
- See how he's betting the pair of Monday matches.
It’s Wimbledon time, as the year’s lone grass-court Grand Slam event has finally arrived.
Half of the men’s and women’s first-round matches will be played on Monday at the All England Lawn Tennis Club, and there are a number with betting value.
Read on to see how I’ll be betting the first day of play in London.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Quentin Halys (-310) vs. Benoit Paire (+245)
6 a.m. ET
The charismatic Benoit Paire has had an interesting 2022 season. He opened the year with a stunning Australian Open run that saw him win two matches as an underdog and get to the third round, but it’s been downhill from there.
Paire is 4-16 since that event, winning just one main draw tour-level match. In his last grass-court event in Stuttgart, Paire announced he’d be taking a brief break from the sport.
That didn’t last long, though.
While the Frenchman isn’t awful on grass, it’s statistically his worst surface. He’s sub-.500 on his career.
Quentin Halys had a productive grass-court season, picking up four qualifying wins in the three tour events he played. Most notably he beat grass-court specialist Denis Kudla at the Queen’s Club.
The duo have met just once prior, with Paire getting past Halys on a hard court in Moselle, but that came in 2018. Now the duo faces off with a far different intensity and level. Further, Halys’ game is more suited to the surface at hand.
On grass, where the serve and return facets of one’s game can dictate a match, Halys has had a far better season. He’s posted a 3.5-1 ace-to-double fault ratio, while Paire has hit more doubles than aces.
Though that may be a strategic choice, it hasn’t worked well for Paire, who has won 68% of his service games as opposed to Halys’ 89%. Paire has only offset that by winning 3% more of his return games than his countryman.
That’s not a recipe for success at Wimbledon, and you never know what type of effort you’ll be getting from Paire anyway.
At 4.5 games, this is a reasonable number to get behind Halys.
Pick: Halys -4.5 games (-122 via FanDuel)
Sebastian Baez (-120) vs. Taro Daniel (+100)
Editor’s Note: This match was delayed until Tuesday
It’s understandable that grass wouldn’t be Sebastian Baez’s surface of choice given his game style, but it’s a touch surprising that Taro Daniel hasn’t been more successful on the surface.
Baez has played all three of the grass-court matches in his career over the past 13 months. He lost in the first round of Wimbledon qualifying last year and went 1-1 in his tune-up events this year.
The Argentine is best on clay and slower courts, so it makes sense that the lowest-bouncing, fast courts that grass provide don’t suit him. He did pick up an impressive win against Jordan Thompson in Mallorca, but Baez is still largely an unknown on grass.
Despite a thorough professional career, Daniel has only played 13 grass-court matches, and just eight since 2018. He was solid in his preparations for Wimbledon, going 2-2 with tight battles against Kudla and a quality effort against Roberto Bautista Agut.
Daniel is more impactful behind his serve than Baez, generating a better ace-to-double fault ratio, more points won behind his first serve and facing fewer break points per service game.
The Japanese has a flat ball flight — particularly on his backhand side — that should help him, as well. Baez’s high-level movement — which is a staple of his game — is greatly limited on grass, where he can’t slide to stops or change direction quickly.
Though he’s not a grass-court specialist, look for Daniel to use his experience to his advantage.
Getting him at any number plus-money is worth the play.
Pick: Daniel ML (+100 via DraftKings)
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