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Women’s Roland Garros Qualifying Tennis Odds, Predictions: Trust Masarova Against Danilovic (May 17)

Women’s Roland Garros Qualifying Tennis Odds, Predictions: Trust Masarova Against Danilovic (May 17) article feature image

Jam Media/Getty. Pictured: Rebeka Masarova hits a backhand at the Akron Zapopan Open.

We are into the week before Roland Garros and with a Grand Slam approaching, the women’s qualifying tournament is in full-swing.

I’ve found value on two of Tuesday’s women’s qualifying matches that I believe are worth a bet.

Read below for two plays from Tuesday at Roland Garros!

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

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Nastasja Mariana Schunk (-200) vs. Laura Pigossi (+145)

8:15 a.m. ET

Laura Pigossi made waves when she was a WTA finalist in Bogota earlier this clay-court season. Pigossi has largely kept up the momentum since then, going 5-3 in her matches since, though she’s just 3-2 on clay.

It’s no surprise that Pigossi’s first WTA final came on clay, as it’s her best surface. She has won 57% of her career matches on clay and is improving further on the surface. Last season, Pigossi played 30 matches on the dirt and compiled a 21-9 record.

The Brazilian’s game suits clay perfectly. She has a heavy forehand and gets good consistent depth from both wings, she moves the ball around the court well and despite not having the overwhelming power that would allow her to dominate from the baseline, her movement around the court is superb.

Nastasja Mariana Schunk is coming into Roland Garros qualifying with a 9-5 record on the dirt this season. In early May, Schunk reached the final of a $100k event in Wiesbaden, falling in the final to Danka Kovinic.

She has won an astonishing 73% of her clay-court matches in her career, over 25% higher than her winning percentage on hard courts. This season, she’s had success against good competition, even taking 11 games from Elena Rybakina in Stuttgart.

Schunk controls the baseline well with her lefty forehand and her backhand is solid, rarely breaking down. She has good rally tolerance and she is able to make her opponents uncomfortable with her aggressive lefty game.

This is a close matchup between two players who understand how to play on clay.

Pigossi will look to grind Schunk down with her consistent depth and keep balls to the Schunk backhand where it’s harder for the German to attack. Schunk will look to hit her heavy lefty forehand into the Pigossi backhand and get short balls that she can put away.

At times, the bigger-hitting Schunk will get hot and be able to dominate with her forehand, while at others, Pigossi will grind her down and extract unforced errors. Expect this match to be tight.

Pick: Over 20.5 games (-135 via BetMGM)

Rebeka Masarova (-114) vs. Olga Danilovic (-108)

12 p.m. ET

Olga Danilovic has won 71% of the clay-court matches in her career, but she’ll be rusty for this one. Danilovic has only played one tournament this season.

She had not played a match since an ITF match last October due to medical problems, and while Danilovic did reach the quarterfinals of Koper’s $60k event, she had to retire 3-4 down to Ysaline Bonaventure due to fatigue. Danilovic played overmatched competition in the first two rounds and so it’s hard to determine how good her level really was.

Danilovic is best known for winning a WTA Tour title at the clay-court 2018 Moscow River Cup. She plays a very aggressive, low-margin lefty game. Danilovic is ultra-aggressive from both wings and her serve is also a weapon when she’s in form. However, in less than five sets played in Koper, Danilovic was broken nine times.

Rebeka Masarova was two points away from the semifinals of a $100k event in La Bisbal D’Emporda. However, the Spaniard lost in three sets to Asia Muhammad.

Masarova is comfortable on clay, with a 70% winning percentage in professional events. Though Masarova is just 4-3 on the dirt this season, last season she went 14-5. The higher bounce on clay moves the ball into the 6 foot, one inch Spaniard’s strike zone and she’s able to track down more shots from her opponent, despite having mediocre movement.

The world No. 136 controls the baseline well with her groundstrokes and really tries to be the aggressor in rallies. Her rally tolerance isn’t the best, but it’s fairly good for how big she hits her groundstrokes.

Danilovic plays a very low-margin game, which which will make for a tough comeback after a long injury layoff. She will need time to hone in her groundstrokes against Masarova, a higher-level opponent than she played in Koper.

Danilovic’s retirement in Koper also raises questions regarding whether she will be physically ready for this match.

In addition, Masarova will force Danilovic on the defensive with her big groundstrokes. This would make the Serb uncomfortable even if she had a lot of match play, as she likes to be the aggressor in rallies.

Pick: Masarova ML (-114 via FanDuel)

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