WTA Bogota Tennis Picks, Predictions: Laura Pigossi to Play Camila Osorio Tough (April 9)
Daniel Garzon Herazo/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Laura Pigossi
We are into the semifinals of the WTA’s first red-clay tournament of 2022 in Bogota and the quality of tennis in Colombia has been spectacular so far.
But, in addition to the great tennis, I’ve found great value on our semifinal matches.
Here are two plays to think about from Colombia.
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Camila Osorio (-500) vs Laura Pigossi (+390)
Camila Osorio has not been at her best this week, but she’s still managed to win in front of her home crowd. Most recently, she beat Elina Avanesyan in straight sets to reach the semifinals.
Osorio returned very well in the match. She won 52% of her return points, including 74% on Avanesyan’s second serve. Osorio generated 12 break points, breaking four times. And on Osorio’s own serve, was only broken once all match.
The Colombian has struggled in the transition to clay (especially at Bogota’s altitude), having to fight hard in wins over Ylena In-Albon and Ipek Oz before facing Avanesyan. However, her movement around the court and ability to neutralize aggressive groundstrokes has been superb. In addition, she’s really developed her forehand into a weapon.
Laura Pigossi is having the best week of her career in Bogota. In the quarterfinals, Pigossi took down Dayana Yastremska 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(3), brushing aside three match points along the way.
Pigossi won 56% of her second-serve returns and 46% of her return points overall. She broke Yastremska’s big serve (in altitude) six times. And while Pigossi’s second serve wasn’t great, she did win 67% of her first serves in the match.
Pigossi is into the semifinals from qualifying, having won five matches in a row. She’s very consistent from the baseline and gets decent depth on her groundstrokes. While Pigossi doesn’t have a big weapon, she can effectively use her forehand to move opponents around the court.
Neither player has an overwhelming serve, so this match will be won from the baseline. Osorio has more power than Pigossi and does have the crowd in her corner.
With that said, Osorio has been a bit erratic this week with her groundstrokes and her second serve, as she has a combined 21 double faults in three matches. Pigossi, with her consistent depth, has the ability to take advantage of this.
Pigossi’s mental toughness in surviving three match points against Yastremska has also impressed me and I think she’s ready to face the Colombian crowd.
Pick: Pigossi +5.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)
Tatjana Maria (-120) vs Kamilla Rakhimova (+102)
1:30 p.m. ET
Tatjana Maria capitalized on an erratic Mirjam Bjorklund to reach the semifinals of Bogota. Maria comfortably beat Bjorklund 6-1, 6-4.
Maria won 63% of her service points compared to just 45% for Bjorklund. Maria also broke Bjorklund’s serve her five times. Bjorklund really struggled to get a rhythm from the baseline, as Maria’s slices were very tough for the Swede to handle.
Maria qualified for this tournament and has not lost a set in the main draw. The German’s slices from both wings, which as we saw in this match, can disrupt opponents’ rhythm. Maria has a high tennis IQ, is very good at the net and places her slices very well around the court.
Kamilla Rakhimova, who snapped a six-match losing streak in Bogota, has played great tennis this week. In her most recent win, Rakhimova defeated Irina Maria Bara 6-3, 4-6, 6-2.
Against Bara, Rakhimova won 74% of her first serves in the match and 49% of her return points. Rakhimova broke Bara’s serve six times in the match, taking advantage of the Romanian’s weaker serve.
Rakhimova has not had an easy road to the semifinals, going three sets in her first two matches as well. Rakhimova had to beat Aleksandra Krunic and Beatriz Haddad Maia to even reach Bara. Rakhimova has been so solid from the baseline this week and has done a great job of hanging in rallies until she finds an opening to strike.
Maria’s game is typically better on faster, lower-bouncing surfaces, hence why she has a 68% winning percentage on grass and only 55% on clay in her career. This is because her slices sit up more on the clay compared to faster surfaces.
Rakhimova, although with a much smaller sample size, has won 66% of her matches as a professional on clay. Interestingly, looking at Elo ratings, while Maria’s overall Elo is higher, Rakhimova’s clay Elo beats out Maria’s.
In the main draw, Rahkimova has had the tougher draw and handled it very well. She’s striking the ball very well and should be able to handle Maria’s game on clay.
Pick: Rakhimova ML (+102 via FanDuel)
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