WTA Linz has continued to produce incredible tennis and Wednesday's order of play is spectacular.
I’ve found value on two of the fascinating matches for us to exploit, including Friedsam vs. Errani and Vondrousova vs. Masarova.
Read on for WTA odds and picks!
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WTA Odds, Picks
Anna-Lena Friedsam (-380) vs. Sara Errani (+280)
6 a.m. ET
Anna-Lena Friedsam survived a tough test to defeat Varvara Gracheva 2-6, 6-3, 6-1 in Linz's final qualifying round. Friedsam won 58% of her service points and 46% of her return points.
In her two qualifying matches combined, Friedsam won 48% of her return points and broke a combined nine times overall.
Friedsam made the final in her last two indoor-hard events of 2022 (Midland and Angers). She didn't drop a set in either event until the final and has a 177-108 record on hard courts as a professional. The German is aggressive from the baseline, looking to take the initiative in rallies when given the opportunity to do so, but she also hits with the control necessary to effectively dictate play.
Sara Errani also qualified for Linz, beating Andrea Gamiz 6-2, 6-3 in the final qualifying round. Errani won 59% of her service points and was only broken twice. On return, the Italian won 56% of her return points and broke serve on six occasions.
Errani is not a great hard-court player, especially at this stage in her career. The Italian had not won consecutive matches in a hard-court WTA Tour event (qualifying or main draw) since last February in Monterrey.
She is a huge fighter, has great anticipation and a high tennis IQ. Errani uses her heavy forehand and variety to make her opponents uncomfortable and she counterpunches effectively.
However, Errani's depth, rally tolerance and foot speed are not nearly as strong as they once were. And, the Italian's serve is always a liability.
Friedsam has won 10 of her last 13 indoor-hard matches overall. The German has much more power than Errani. She should dictate from the baseline and get into many of the Italian's return games.
Expect the German to dominate.
Pick: Errani to NOT win a set (-122 via FanDuel)
Marketa Vondrousova (-330) vs. Rebeka Masarova(+250)
7:30 a.m. ET
Marketa Vondrousova started off Linz strong, defeating Viktoriya Tomova 6-3, 6-3. Vondrousova won 61% of her service points and was only broken twice in the match. In addition, the Czech won 51% of her first-serve returns and broke five times.
She is a strong hard-court player, with a 132-53 record on the surface as a professional, including a 19-6 record last season.
The Czech has a heavy, lefty forehand which she uses to dictate play. She is a great mover and anticipates her opponents' shots well. In addition, Vondrousova is an excellent counterpuncher.
Rebeka Masarova qualified for Linz and has now upset Ekaterina Alexandrova 4-6, 6-1, 7-6(6) in the main draw. Although she won just 48% of her second serves, Masarova won 74% of her first serves and was only broken twice. She also held Alexandrova to 62% of her first-serve points won, despite the Russian's big first serve, and generated 12 break points.
Masarova has had a breakthrough start to 2023, going 12-3 (all on hard), including a WTA Tour final appearance against Coco Gauff in Auckland.
She has controlled the baseline at a high level and effectively hit through her opposition. However, I'm still not convinced with her rally tolerance.
Masarova's three losses this season (Gauff, Stefanini and Paolini) have come to players who absorb pace well, are consistent and counterpunch effectively, just like Vondrousova.
Compared to playing someone like Alexandrova, the Spaniard tends to rush and overhit against players who are able to handle her power game. In her Australian Open defeat to Lucrezia Stefanini, Masarova hit 50 unforced errors.
Look for Vondrousova to take advantage of this.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Vondrousova's overall Elo is 197.5 points higher than Masarova's and her hard-court Elo is 182.2 points above the Spaniard's.
Pick: Masarova to NOT win a set (-110 via FanDuel)
