WNBA Best Bets Today: Expert Picks, Player Prop, Predictions (Wednesday, May 29)

WNBA Best Bets Today: Expert Picks, Player Prop, Predictions (Wednesday, May 29) article feature image

Julie Vanloo #35 and Karlie Samuelson #44 of the Washington Mystics high five during the game against the Seattle Storm. (Photo by Kenny Giarla/NBAE via Getty Images)

It's another day in the W and we have a trio of games on deck for the Wednesday slate and to match that energy, our experts have a trio of their best bets for you all to dig into. We look ahead to the Phoenix Mercury taking a trip to New York to meet the Liberty at 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network, the Atlanta Dream going up against the Washington Mystics and an NBA TV showdown between the Las Vegas Aces and the Minnesota Lynx at 8 p.m. ET.

Grab your friends and get ready for tonight with our best bets and predictions for Wednesday, May 29 in our WNBA best bets and expert picks for today.

WNBA Best Bets Today | Wednesday, May 29

GameTime (ET)Pick
7 p.m.
7 p.m.
8 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our WNBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Dream vs. Mystics

Wednesday, May 29
7 p.m. ET
League Pass
Karlie Samuelson under 10.5 points

By Jim Turvey

The Washington Mystics play host to the Atlanta Dream on Wednesday night, and Shakira Austin is listed as probable. The 23-year-old center is a key piece of the Mystics on both ends and is likely a part of why the spread for this game has moved three points to Washington since opening.

The Mystics will still be without Brittney Sykes, but I still think it's a good spot to look for a Karlie Samuelson under. Samuelson has been scoring 22.6 points per 100 possessions, per pbpstats.com, with Austin off the court this season, which has happened with decent regularity as she works her way back from a hip injury.

However, that number plummets to 14.7 points per 100 possessions when Austin is on the court. In the three games they have played together, Samuelson went under twice, with the one over being a game in which Karlie went 4-of-5 from deep.

We're talking very small sample size, but this is around where they've hung her scoring prop even in games without Austin, and that's an oversight given the looks Austin will naturally take from the rest of the starting lineup.

I would bet this to under 9.5.

Pick: Karlie Samuelson under 10.5 points

Mercury vs. Liberty

Wednesday, May 29
7 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Liberty team total under 92.5 points (-120)

By Michael Arinze

After a disappointing 70-47 road loss to the Connecticut Sun, the Phoenix Mercury will head to Brooklyn to take on the New York Liberty.

With the Mercury coming off such a humbling defeat, the best thing for the team might be a quick turnaround to get back on the court to right their wrongs.

Phoenix isn’t as bad offensively as it showed against Connecticut. Somehow, it went just 1-for-27 from behind the 3-point line.

Nonetheless, Liberty was bet up as a favorite from -13.5 to -14.5, while the total surged from 167.5 to 170.5.

This is a bit of an overreaction, and one way bettors can profit is to target Liberty’s team total under 92.5 points.

New York has exceeded this team total just once this season, and that was against an Indiana Fever team that’s dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (111.3).

Phoenix allows seven fewer points per 100 possessions than Indiana, making New York’s team total somewhat inflated.

With my model giving New York a threshold of closer to 88 points, the under offers a ton of value at 92.5.

Pick: Liberty team total under 92.5 points (-120)

Aces vs. Lynx

Wednesday, May 29
8 p.m. ET
Lynx +4.5

By Jim Turvey

The Minnesota Lynx have arguably been the story of the young WNBA season, with a 4-1 start against the toughest strength of schedule, per Basketball-Reference. They have a +12.0 net rating and impressive wins over the Storm (twice) and the Liberty.

On Wednesday night, they get their biggest test yet, the defending champs.

However, they have a couple things in their favor: They get to play host, and the Aces haven't quite looked themselves without Chelsea Gray to start the season.

The Aces are still 3-1 (they have a crazy floor with this roster), but by Basketball-Reference's simple rating system which weighs net rating and strength of opponent, they are currently eighth in the league.

Now, I would by no means say the Aces are the eighth-best team in the league right now, in fact they are likely still right around the best. However, laying 4.5 points on the road against a Lynx team that looks like a top four team in the league right now is just a little too much. Hopefully you tailed in the Action app at Lynx +6.5, but I would play this down to Lynx +3.

Pick: Lynx +4.5

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