Paraguay (1-1-1) and Germany (2-1-0) meet in the World Cup Round of 32 knockout stage at 4:30 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.
Germany is favored at -300 on the moneyline, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-145o / +118u) goals.
Let's get into my Paraguay vs. Germany prediction.
Germany vs Paraguay Prediction
- Pick: Germany -1.75 Asian Handicap (-125 at bet365)
My Germany vs Paraguay best bet is for Germany to cover the -1.75 Asian Handicap. This pick is based on the expectation that Germany's potent offense will secure a victory by two or more goals against a defensively vulnerable Paraguay. Click here for the latest World Cup soccer odds.
Germany vs Paraguay Odds, Spread
| Paraguay Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 2.5 -132o / 108u | +1000 |
| Germany Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 2.5 -132o / 108u | -320 |
Germany vs Paraguay World Cup Betting Preview
This match presents a classic tactical contrast.
Germany, under coach Julian Nagelsmann, is expected to control the game, averaging over 62% possession throughout the tournament. They will likely dominate the ball against a Paraguayan team that will be forced to defend for long stretches.
Paraguay has conceded an average of 20 shots per game in North America, and they are now facing their most dangerous opponent yet.
Paraguay's path to the knockout rounds has been narrow, relying on a defense-first approach. Their best hope is to frustrate the German attack and hope for a lapse in concentration.
However, Germany's offensive players have been remarkably clinical, outperforming their xG by 3.24. This efficiency suggests they are unlikely to squander the numerous opportunities they are projected to create.
Historically, these two nations have met once before in this competition, a 2002 Round of 16 clash that Germany won 1-0. Germany has a strong overall record against South American teams in the tournament, winning 14 of 21 encounters.
While their most recent match against a CONMEBOL side was the loss to Ecuador, the high-stakes nature of this elimination game points toward a much more focused and aggressive German performance. The significant gulf in talent and statistical output strongly favors Germany to advance.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Germany vs Paraguay picks.
Germany vs Paraguay Picks, Parlay
- Germany -1.75 Asian Handicap (-125 at bet365)
- Germany to Win & Over 2.5 Goals (+110 at bet365)
Germany enters the knockout rounds as one of the most formidable attacking teams in the tournament. They have scored a joint-high 10 goals, a total generated from an impressive 6.76 expected goals (xG).
Their ability to create high-quality chances is further demonstrated by their 22 shots on target, tied for the most in the competition. This offensive firepower will test a Paraguayan defense that has shown significant weaknesses.
Paraguay has struggled at both ends of the field. Offensively, they have produced just 1.10 xG across their three group stage matches, one of the lowest marks in the tournament. Defensively, the numbers are even more concerning.
They have allowed opponents a staggering 60 shots and have a 4.14 expected goals against (xGA), highlighting a susceptibility that a clinical German side is well-equipped to exploit.
While Germany's recent 2-1 loss to Ecuador ended an 11-game winning streak, the context is crucial. That match was a dead rubber, with Germany having already secured the top spot in its group.
Prior to that defeat, Germany had scored more than 1.5 goals in 10 of its last 12 matches, with nine of those contests also featuring over 2.5 total goals. Against a Paraguayan team that advanced as a third-place finisher, Germany is positioned to return to its dominant form and secure a comfortable win.
Germany vs Paraguay Projected Lineups
Germany Expected Lineup (4-2-3-1)
- Goalkeeper: Neuer
- Defenders: Kimmich, Rudiger, Tah, Brown
- Midfielders: Nmecha, Pavlovic; Sane, Musiala, Wirtz
- Forwards: Havertz
Paraguay Expected Lineup (4-4-2)
- Goalkeeper: Gill
- Defenders: Cáceres, Alderete, Velázquez, Alonso;
- Midfielders: Almiron, Galarza, Cubas, Mauricio
- Forwards: Avalos, Enciso
Germany vs Paraguay Weather
It will be mostly sunny in Foxborough, Mass., for today's Germany-Paraguay match, with a high of 84 degrees and low of 60.
