Houston Roughnecks vs. Dallas Renegades XFL Betting Odds, Pick & Analysis: Will Landry Jones Stretch the Field?

Roughnecks vs. Renegades Odds

• Spread: Roughnecks -3
• Total: 50.5
• Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
• TV: FS1

Odds as of Saturday morning and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Our staff previews Sunday's game, complete with their projected spread and several picks.

Roughnecks vs. Renegades Injury Report

The Roughnecks are about as healthy as they can be. For the third straight game, they will be without No. 3 running back De’Angelo Henderson (shoulder), and backup tackle Marques Tucker (knee) will also miss his second game, but they are otherwise healthy on both sides of the ball.

The Renegades are mostly healthy, but they might be without two starting defensive linemen in defensive end Winston Craig (knee), who has missed two straight weeks, and nose tackle Tony Guerad (shoulder), who is the team's top run defender. Both are technically questionable but seem to be on the doubtful side of playing. — Matthew Freedman

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Key Mismatch

Roughnecks Pass Offense vs. Renegades Pass Defense

In this game, we get the best passing attack in the XFL facing a defense that ranks second-to-last with a 58.6 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus).

Roughnecks quarterback P.J. Walker has been extraordinarily good so far, leading the XFL in completion percentage (79.1%), passing yards (748) and touchdowns (10) over three games. No. 1 wide receiver Cam Phillips has been unstoppable, leading the league in receptions (20), yards (324) and touchdowns (7).

Wide receivers Khalil Lewis and Nick Holley have also emerged as reliable slot options for Walker, and wide receiver Sammie Coates, perhaps the most decorated receiver of the bunch coming into the season, is a viable field stretcher on the perimeter, even if he rarely catches the ball.

The Renegades’ struggles in the secondary have been widespread: Six players have allowed a 100+ passer rating in coverage this season.

They are particularly vulnerable in the slot. Last week, they allowed a 6-81-1 receiving performance to Austin Proehl. Two weeks ago, they let Nelson Spruce get loose for 6-78-2 receiving. And now they will need to defend two above-average slot receiver.

The Renegades are last in the league with one interception, and their pass rush is simple mediocre (60.4 PFF rating).

Given how strong the Roughnecks are in their four-wide set and how vulnerable the Renegades have been in pass defense so far, it's likely that Walker & Co. will have another big day. — Mike Vitanza

Our Projected Odds

You'll find our experts' consensus spread as well as Sean Koerner's total below. Find their projections for every Week 4 game here.

• Our Experts' Consensus Spread: -0.3
• Koerner's Projected Total: 50.7

Picks

John Ferguson: Roughnecks-Renegades Over 49 

The over hasn’t been a profitable bet so far in the XFL, as it has hit just four times in 12 games. Luckily for this matchup, the Houston Roughnecks have hit the over in all three of their contests. Each of their games has had a combined score of at least 52 points. On the other end of this game, Dallas Renegades have scored 24 and 25 points respectively since Landry Jones took over at quarterback.

The Renegades have done their part in coaxing the over to hit in their matchups, but their opponents the past two weeks (Los Angeles Wildcats and Seattle Dragons) just weren’t up to the task. That won’t be the case this week with Houston leading the highest-scoring offense in the league.

Houston has also allowed 24 and 27 points over the past two weeks.

I would bet the over up to 52 points.

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Ben Rolfe: Roughnecks-Renegades Over 49 

This game should be a cracking contest between two teams that pass the most in the league and are both in the top three in offense (per Pro Football Focus). In the two games with Jones, the Renegades have averaged 24.5 points per game.

Meanwhile, the Roughnecks are averaging an impressive 33 points per game so far this season, and on defense, they have allowed an average of 22.7 points. The over is 4-8 in the XFL, but three of those four overs have come in Roughnecks games.

I would bet this up to 52.5.

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Chris Raybon: Roughnecks-Renegades Over 49

The Roughnecks have hung point totals of 37, 28 and 34 on the scoreboard in their first three games. The Renegades have also been solid on offense since Jones returned from injury in Week 2, averaging 24.5 points per game.

All three of Dallas’ games have been decided by one score, and Houston’s last two have as well, so this game is likely to turn into a (run-N-)shootout, with both squads keeping the pressure on each other to score.

I would bet this up to 51.5.

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Mike Vitanza: Roughnecks -2.5 

For me, this one comes down to the significant mismatch between Houston’s passing game and the Dallas secondary. After three weeks, you can make the argument that the race for MVP is between two players: Roughnecks quarterback P.J. Walker and his top receiver, Cam Phillips.

In Week 4, they take on an average Dallas defense with a well below-average secondary (58.6 PFF coverage rating,  second-to-last in the XFL). Houston also boasts three other talented receivers in Khalil Lewis, Nick Holley and Sammie Coates, all of whom are capable of taking advantage of the matchup.

For Dallas, quarterback Landry Jones has not yet proven he can effectively stretch the field to keep up with the Houston offense. While his 71.8% completion percentage is high, it’s largely the result of short passes to his running backs and tight ends. When he has gone downfield, his success rate has been laughable: He has completed just one pass of over 20 yards and owns a passer rating of 2.3 on deep attempts.

The Renegades have also been way too conservative in 4th-and-short scenarios. As Matthew Freedman points out in his Week 4 XFL rankings, this Renegades coaching staff has opted to kick field goals in situations when they should probably go for it. Against a team that seemingly scores only touchdowns, this is a problem.

The Roughnecks are substantially more talented than their counterparts. Even on the road, I like them up to -3.5.

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