Liverpool vs Fulham Odds, Expert Prediction | Premier League Picks (May 3)

Liverpool

Liverpool's offense is finally turning back into the elite offense we've seen for so many years, creating a combined 13.5 xG in their last five matches. The Reds have looked better and better offensively lately, as Klopp inverted Trent Alexander-Arnold into the midfield over the past two matches.

That provides Liverpool the ability to build up in a 3-2-5 shape and push a ton of attackers forward to create numerical advantages against the last line of defense. Alexander-Arnold has been one of the best ball progressors and suppliers in the Premier League for a long time now, so this has given Liverpool new life.

Even though the Reds have gone through rough patches this season, this is still one of the best offenses in the Premier League. Having Luis Diaz healthy only makes this attack more dangerous.

If Liverpool want to be at their best, this match has to be fast-paced and played in transition, which is exactly the type of match Fulham are at their best as well.

Now, inverting Alexander-Arnold into the midfield is great and has made Liverpool's offense much better, but for a defense that was already struggling to defend in transition, it's made Liverpool's matches very chaotic.

The reality is the Reds can’t counter-press the way they used to. This team isn't the same it once was, so even though the offense has looked like its old self again, Liverpool still conceded 8.7 xG in those five matches. Now, they're allowing 1.34 npxG per 90 minutes on the season.

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Fulham

Fulham are comfortably in the middle of the table, which is a good thing because suspensions and injuries could have done them in.

Aleksandar Mitrovic has been suspended for a while now and will also miss this match. He's the most important player to his team in the Premier League. He's created 12.3 of Fulham's 38.9 xG. In the 10 matches without Mitrovic, Fulham are averaging 0.76 xG per match. With Mitrovic in the lineup, they’re putting up 1.37 xG per match.

He also makes a massive difference because of Fulham's style of play. They want to get the ball out wide and swing in crosses because Mitrovic is such a dangerous aerial threat. Fulham have completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area of any team in the Premier League, but Liverpool are top-five at defending crosses.

The Fulham defense has been one of the worst in the Premier League all season, allowing 1.54 npxG per 90 minutes.

They've been overperforming drastically and have been held up by 34-year-old American Tim Ream, who has played almost every minute for them this season. Unfortunately for Fulham, Ream broke his arm and will miss the remainder of the season, so now Fulham has a gaping hole at center back going up against the hottest offense in the Premier League.

Liverpool vs Fulham Pick

The Liverpool attack has been unstoppable at the moment, and it doesn't look to be slowing down anytime soon, especially with all of their attackers finally healthy.

The inversion of Alexander-Arnold into the midfield has unlocked Liverpool's attack and made them incredibly dangerous in build-up play. The Reds can push four attackers up on the last line of defense, allowing them to create overloads in the box, which is why they've averaged 13.5 xG in their last five matches.

Going up against a Fulham defense that has nothing to play for and just lost its most important player on defense is a bad recipe for the Cottagers.

I have the Reds projected for 2.96 goals, so I like the value on Liverpool's team total over 2.5 at -120 (PointsBet).

Pick: Liverpool Team Total Over 2.5 (-120)