Midweek Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Chelsea vs Liverpool

We have a six-match midweek slate in the Premier League that is headlined by a battle at Stamford Bridge between Chelsea and Liverpool.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Bournemouth vs Brighton

Cunningham: Brighton just continue to be an offensive force and they are showing no signs of slowing down. Against one of the better low block teams in the Premier League and a team that plays a similar style to that of Bournemouth, Brighton scored three goals and some xG models had them creating a whopping 4.5 xG. Under De Zerbi, Brighton are roasting the bottom half of the table, averaging 1.85 xG in 11 matches.

In the previous match against Bournemouth, Brighton did exactly what they did to Brentford on Saturday. The Seagulls held 70.3% possession, they tilted the field on the Cherries at 75.3% and created 2.2 xG.

Bournemouth cooked Fulham on Saturday, having one of their best offensive outputs of the season. Since January 21st, however, Bournemouth have created 9.6 xG in eight matches. The Cherries are so good at creating one or two huge chances a match, similar to that of Brentford. They also are a top-five team in terms of xG per set piece, while Brighton are 15th in xG per set piece and conceded one to Brentford.

A good indicator of how good teams are in transition offense or defense is final third to penalty box conversion rate. Teams like Bournemouth don’t hold a lot of possession, so a lot of their attacking opportunities are in transition.

Similarly to Brighton, a lot of their defending ends up being in transition when they are facing a non-big six club. Bournemouth are 10th offensively in that category, while Brighton are 17th defensively.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-120)

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Leicester City vs Aston Villa

Dabbundo: I haven’t bet on Leicester a single time all season long because my numbers have consistently had them rated lower than the betting market does. For Tuesday’s clash with Aston Villa, that’s no longer the case.

The market moved solidly against Leicester City following their uncompetitive defeat to Crystal Palace on Saturday. The Foxes conceded more than 1.5 xG and two goals to a Palace side that had been the worst attack in the league for large parts of the season. The defeat and performance marked the end of the Brendan Rodgers era at Leicester.

From a matchup perspective, this isn’t a bad one for the Foxes either. Aston Villa are steadfast in their desire to play out from the back under Unai Emery. Despite the countless high turnovers and risky moments, the results have come for the Villans and Emery has Aston Villa into the top half of the table.

The defense remains quite poor match-to-match and it’s quite remarkable that Villa escaped their last five matches without a loss despite mediocre underlying numbers.

Leicester are still capable of forcing high turnovers and breaking at pace at a scrambling defense. It’s one of their major strengths and part of why the Foxes are a great buy low on Tuesday. Since returning from the World Cup break, Leicester and Aston Villa have the exact same xG difference at -0.44 per 90.

Villa have rode some hot finishing, while Leicester have finally regressed toward the bottom of the table.

I’d bet Leicester City draw no bet at -120 or better.

Pick: Leicester City – Draw No Bet (-120 via DraftKings)

Chelsea vs Liverpool

Dabbundo: Chelsea’s decision to fire Graham Potter has not been well received in the betting market — the Blues moved from +118 to +148 to advance in their matchup with Real Madrid that begins next week in the Champions League.

With that being said, Chelsea are undervalued here at home against Liverpool. The Reds just had their worst performance of the entire season at Manchester City on Saturday and it’s a mere continuation of their poor road form this year. Liverpool have a -0.24 xG difference per 90 minutes away from home this season and only five teams in the league have allowed more xG on the road.

The Blues lost 2-0 at home to Aston Villa, but the performance was rather positive as a whole. The finishing success continues to elude them, but Potter did have them playing a lot better and the market had picked up on that. Chelsea had a +0.63 xG difference per 90 minutes since Jan. 10. Despite this excellent underlying process, Chelsea had a negative actual goal differential in that time period.

You’d expect a response to the firing of Potter in this matchup, especially at home. Chelsea finally inserted N’Golo Kanté back into the lineup, the press was as good as it has been all season and the Reds don’t really have the midfield to stack up with the Blues here. Liverpool may have the superior attacking firepower, but they’re outmatched in the defense and midfield.

I’d bet Chelsea draw no bet at -125 or better.

Pick: Chelsea – Draw No Bet (-120 via Caesars)

Manchester United vs Brentford

Cunningham: If Brentford were able to be effective in transition and effective on set pieces against Brighton, who's to say they aren’t able to do that against a Casemiro-less Manchester United?

The Bees have been one of the best teams against the big six in recent years, and this season they are the only team in the Premier League to have a positive xG against the big six at +0.8.

A lot has changed since August, but this is the reverse fixture of one of Brentford’s most famous victories, when they smashed Manchester United 4-0 at the Brentford Community Stadium.

Additionally, it should be noted that a lot of Manchester United’s success this season has come versus the bottom half of the table. Against the top 10 teams in the Premier League, Manchester United have a -5.8 xGD.

The splits for Brentford away versus at home aren’t as drastic as they were last season. This season, they’re +5 xGD at home versus -1 xGD on the road. Plus, they’ve drawn Arsenal and beaten Manchester City on the road this season, so let’s not act like they’re not capable of pulling off another one here.

I only have Manchester United projected at +101, so I love the value on our Bees at +1 at -122.

Pick: Brentford +1 (-122)