2022 Farmers Insurance Open Updated Odds & 7 Picks for Bryson DeChambeau, Sam Burns, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Bryson DeChambeau (left) and Sam Burns.
2022 Farmers Insurance Open Odds via BetMGM
|Si Woo Kim||+6600|
|Dawie van der Walt||+75000|
|Seung Yul Noh||+75000|
|Jared du Toit||+75000|
The Farmers Insurance Open brings one of the best fields of the PGA TOUR season to Torrey Pines, where six of the top-10 players in the world will be on hand this week.
Last year, Patrick Reed took home the title with a five-stroke win, although it wasn’t without the drama that generally comes with him winning. This year, he’s nowhere near the top of the odds board with such an elite group of players.
We have World No. 1 Jon Rahm, who loves Torrey Pines and is expected to be near the top of the leaderboard, given his track record in La Jolla. Players like Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Dustin Johnson are not far behind him, though.
With the best field of January on hand, our staff of GolfBet writers have looked up and down the odds board for the most value for you, the bettor. Check out their picks and detailed breakdowns below.
Sam Burns — Top 10 (+225)
Jason Sobel: Coming off a big week for players with big odds, I’m going to stick with some conservative plays on bigger names this week — and chasing these props on Burns has become a favored target.
One might suggest that Burns needed last year’s Farmers finish in order to make the ascendancy he’s enjoyed over the past 12 months. In that one, he entered the final round just two strokes behind co-leaders Patrick Reed and Carlos Ortiz, only to start with a double bogey and add three other bogeys to shoot 75 and finish in a share of 18th.
Sometimes young players need a few bad experiences while getting into the mix in order to figure it out the next time they get there. Two months later, Burns won the Valspar Championship; he now has two wins and is a top-15 player.
Some might not trust him away from his preferred Bermuda putting surfaces, but I don’t think he’s a guy who should be pigeon holed as a pick only at specific venues.
Burns owns an impressive six top-10s in his previous 10 starts dating back to last summer, so there’s plenty of value in this play.
Maverick McNealy +7000
Chris Murphy: I’ll go with a bit of a longer shot to come through for his first win on TOUR this week.
Maverick McNealy has been close and shown some flashes over the past 12 months that he may finally be ready to break through, but he hasn’t quite put it all together over four days. When he does finally get to the winners circle, I believe it will come somewhere on the West Coast, and he certainly has the game to fit Torrey Pines this week for the Farmers Insurance Open.
McNealy is one of the best players on approach from 200 or more yards out in this entire field, which is where a high percentage of shots will come from this week. He also has a large preference for the Poa greens they will encounter this week, and across many of the next several events. He is the type of player that can have one of those peak weeks on and around the greens that will eventually win him a tournament at this level.
McNealy’s combination of skill with long irons, and with a sharp short game make for a perfect mix at Torrey Pines especially at these long odds.
Bryson DeChambeau +2200
With eight PGA TOUR victories on his resume, there are very few golfers on TOUR who carry the same amount of win equity as the mercurial 28-year-old.
Despite two missed cuts in his only two starts at the Farmers Insurance Open, I still believe Torrey Pines is a good course fit for Bryson. It is a long and classical golf course and he’s had plenty of success on similar tracks throughout his career.
Growing up in California, Bryson has established himself as one of the best West Coast poana putters on TOUR, with four of his professional wins coming on the putting surface. DeChambeau may not have the results at Torrey Pines, but he has had great recent success in California. He had some strong finishes at Riviera Country Club (fifth in 2020, 15th in 2019) and finished fourth at the 2020 PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park (San Francisco).
Not to be forgotten, DeChambeau was also involved at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines before collapsing down the stretch.
Bryson has the distance off of the tee and underrated short game and putting to tame Torrey Pines.
Francesco Molinari — Top 20 (+330)
Rob Bolton: Came this close to flipping a coin with J.T. Poston for a top 40 at the same value, but the Italian gets the nod because his class is permanent. (Just make sure to take a peek at J.T. for his target.)
As I noted in my Power Rankings, Molinari (at No. 8) not only landed in La Jolla with a confidence-building T-6 at PGA WEST as the nearest object in his rear-view mirror, but he also placed T10 in last year’s Farmers and T-13 at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, and all of those performances stand out in a run of otherwise forgettable form.
But it’s more than merely three results that support this prop. The 39-year-old possesses the profile of the kind of longer-hitting, tee-to-green tactician that the course demands. He’s also settled into his new digs with his family just up the coast.
Ryan Palmer — Top 20 (+220)
Landon Silinsky: In case you didn’t know, Ryan Palmer loves Torrey Pines.
Palmer has played the Farmers each of the past four years and his results read T-2, T-21, T-13, T-2. The last time we saw him was at the Sony, where he finished T-12 and struck the ball incredibly well, gaining at least 1.3 strokes off-the-tee in three of his four rounds.
The 45-year-old can still bomb it, as he ranked 38th on the PGA TOUR last season in driving distance. That will come in handy at Torrey Pines, as it’s one of the longest courses on the circuit.
You can make the argument Palmer makes for a compelling outright bet at 60/1, but we will be a bit more conservative here and take the +220 that he simply top 20s.
Tony Finau +2900
Bryan Berryman: I try not to look too much into course history, as a lot of times it can be more noise than anything. But sometimes it’s hard to ignore.
That’s the case for Tony Finau this week. In his seven career starts at the Farmers, his finishes are: second, sixth, 13th, sixth, fourth, 18th, 24th.
His combination of length off the tee, and excellent around the green play make him a match made in heaven for Torrey Pines. The Strokes Gained numbers for Tony haven’t jumped off the page to start 2022, but he has still managed to gain strokes on the field in every statistical ball-striking category.
The one fear we always have when betting on Finau is his putter, which is clearly the Achilles heel in his game. However, in those aforementioned seven starts here, he has only lost strokes on the greens once.
When he can pair his ball striking prowess with positive strokes gained putting numbers, Finau is in the mix to win any event he plays. He clearly has an affinity for this golf course, and I think he puts it all together this week, adding a win to his already stellar course history at the Farmers.
Max Homa — Top 20 (+275)
Shane McNichol: It’s dangerous to fall in love with a trend that might be more of a coincidence than a real indicator of future outcomes, but I think I’ve found one here worth noting.
In Max Homa’s last eight non-major tournaments played in his home state of California, his worst finish is T-21. In those eight tournaments, he has five top-10s, including his two most recent PGA TOUR wins.
If his work in the entire state doesn’t catch your eye, Homa has been good at this event specifically, earning a top ten in his last two visits to the Farmers. If he putts and chips as well as he has at Torrey Pines and its neighboring courses on the West Coast in the past, Homa has a real chance to be in the mix when Saturday rolls around.
His odds to win the tournament or finish in the top 10 are also enticing, but this number was simply too juicy to pass up. With Homa rolling into this event after a strong showing at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, he’s poised for a good week.