2022 Tour Championship Odds, Best Bets: 5 Picks for Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Rory McIlroy (left) and Xander Schauffele.
- The PGA TOUR season ends this week with the 2022 Tour Championship.
- Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite to lift the FedEx Cup, as he begins with a two-stroke lead at 10-under.
- Check out our GolfBet staff's best bets and picks for the week below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Tour Championship odds (with staggered strokes) via BetMGM
2022 Tour Championship Odds
We’re down to the final event in the 2021-22 PGA TOUR season, and there are $18 million on the line.
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to claim his first FedEx Cup win, starting the tournament at 10-under par and two strokes ahead of Patrick Cantlay. Will Zalatoris was set to start at 7-under, although he had to withdraw due to a pair of herniated discs in his neck.
With so much money on the line from top to bottom this week, everyone will have something to play for until their round ends on Sunday, no matter where they stand on the leaderboard.
What’s important to remember in betting this event is that you have the option of picking the lowest 72-hole score or the winner of the tournament, who will win the FedEx Cup. Our staff has laid out their picks, which are specific to either market, below.
2022 Tour Championship Picks
Rory McIlroy – With Staggered Strokes, +1000 (WynnBet)
Jason Sobel: Most players might feel a bit daunted to start the week a half-dozen strokes behind the leader. Maybe they’d even blame an imperfect format and never quite be in the right frame of mind, knowing they’d be chasing right from the opening tee shot.
However, for McIlroy, this might be everything he’s ever needed.
Think about it: How many times have we seen him trailing by this many shots after the first (or second, or third) round, only to battle back to a place where we collectively say, “man, if he’d only had a few more holes, he could’ve caught the leader …” Well, he’ll have those extra holes this week. I can’t wait to watch a presumably aggressive McIlroy, armed with the knowledge that he’ll need to step on the gas pedal, on a golf course where he’s won in the past.
Throw in the karma narrative of the PGA TOUR’s most vocal leader winning the season-ending title in the most tumultuous year ever and I like the idea of playing McIlroy as a chaser.
Rory McIlroy – With Staggered Strokes, +1000 (WynnBet)
Matt Vincenzi: There isn’t a golfer on TOUR who can compare to Rory McIlroy when it comes to success at the Tour Championship.
In his past seven trips to East Lake, he has finished outside the top seven (without starting strokes) only twice. The 33-year-old has two FedEx Cup Championships on his resume and is the only player besides Tiger Woods to have won the FedEx Cup more than once.
McIlroy had an extremely impressive BMW Championship last week at Wilmington Country Club. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (+10.6) and would have gotten deep into contention if it wasn’t for an atrocious week with the putter. McIlroy did lose 4.6 strokes to the field putting, which was his worst performance in the category since March 2021.
Overall, McIlroy has had a strong year on the greens so I don’t expect his struggles to continue at a course where he’s been so comfortable throughout his career.
Rory will start the week at 4-under and will have a lot of work to do to catch Scottie Scheffler at 10. It may seem like a tall task, but McIlroy himself was able to win the TOUR Championship in 2019 despite starting at 5-under. In fact, he won the event by four strokes despite starting with the stroke disadvantage.
If he repeats last week’s tee-to-green performance and manages to have a positive putting week, McIlroy could become the first golfer in history to win the FedEx Cup three times.
Xander Schauffele – Without Staggered Strokes, +1100 (BetMGM)
Chris Murphy: There are a couple of places per year where you can always count on Xander Schauffele to show up with his best game, and certainly East Lake Golf Club is amongst that group.
Schauffele has been one of the best players at this course in SG: Total over the last few years and, as noted by Justin Ray, he has the best score relative to pay since 2017 in this event at 54-under during that stretch. Justin Thomas is the next best, 13 strokes behind at 41-under.
Schauffele is also carrying some form into the week as he played from the final pairing on Sunday at the BMW Championship but fell just a few strokes short.
I won’t be surprised one bit if he is in the running for the tournament, alongside the low gross score, which really gives me some value at +1100 on BetMGM without the starting strokes. This is a category he won back in 2020, and I expect him to be right there again this week.
Joshua Perry: Finau is in a good run of late, with a couple wins and a fifth-place finish at the St. Jude in his past four starts. He wasn’t as sharp last week at the BMW, but overall, he’s playing better than he ever has in his career.
Overall, Finau’s East Lake results have been spotty, but he’s finished seventh twice, so he is capable of putting up a good result here. He’s in that starting range I like, as well, opening six behind Scheffler, but only five guys are ahead of him. He knows if he can go low and get off to a fast start, he can be in contention.
For this type of bet, I want that aggressive mindset, as opposed to the guy at the top who feels like he already has a lead to defend.
Jon Rahm – Without Starting Strokes, +900 (BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings)
Derek Farnsworth: Rahm was my pick to win last week and while he ultimately finished in a tie for eighth, I was very encouraged by what I saw. He started his first 27 holes at five-over par and was nearly dead last in the field at that point. Something seemed to click in his game the rest of his second round and he carried that over into a bogey-free weekend. Rahm finished his final 45 holes at 14-under par, which was the best in the field.
East Lake requires accuracy off the tee if you want to score, but it’s also the longest par-70 on the PGA TOUR. A combination of accuracy and distance is preferred this week and Rahm carries both of those in spades. He’s first on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and in Total Driving this season. He’s also first in greens in regulation.
Looking at those statistics, it’s hard to believe that Rahm has had such a down year, but he can right a lot of those wrongs with a big week at East Lake.
Rather than taking Rahm to win the tournament outright, I am taking the slightly worse odds and betting him to finish as the lowest 72-hole scorer. He tied with Kevin Na for the lowest 72-hole score at East Lake last year and I like his chances to repeat in this regard. Starting seven shots back from Scheffler, we can expect Rahm to be aggressive from the very first hole.
Collin Morikawa — Without Starting Strokes, +2800 (DraftKings)
Landon Silinsky: Morikawa posted a 10 on last Sunday at the BMW en route to his final-round 79. This dropped him all the way to T44, which is likely why we are getting such big number on him here in a 29 man field.
Prior to last week, Morikawa had shown signs of life at the FedEx St. Jude, finishing T5, which was his best performance since the U.S. Open. The top of the board does not present a ton of value this week, so taking a stab at on one of the most talented golfers on the planet at close to 30-1 sounds good to me.
East Lake and TPC Southwind, where Morikawa finished fifth at two weeks ago, are both Donald Ross designs and are quite similar. You will need to be accurate off the tee and hit long irons well. It was not that long ago when Morikawa was No. 1 in the world and he can easily remind everyone of that this week.