2022 WGC-Dell Match Play: Odds & 5 Picks for Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, More

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We head to Austin Country Club this week for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Last season we saw an exciting finish at the event with Billy Horschel taking down Scottie Scheffler in the finals.

Austin Country Club is a Par 71 measuring 7,108 yards. It is a Pete Dye design and features Bermudagrass greens.

The field will consist of 64 of the world's top players. The only notable exceptions are Cameron Smith, Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama and Rory McIlroy. The players will be put in 16 groups of four, where the winner of each pod will advance to the knockout rounds starting with the final 16.

Past Winners at Austin Country Club

• 2021: Billy Horschel (32 seed)
• 2019: Kevin Kisner (48 seed)
• 2018: Bubba 35 seed)
• 2017: Dustin Johnson (1 seed)
• 2016: Jason Day (2 seed)

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5 Key Stats For Austin Country Club

Let's take a look at five metrics key for Austin Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach is always a great place to start when creating a predictive model. Pete Dye designs have challenging green complexes, making it crucial to hit your spot when hitting approaches to the green, and the greens at Austin CC are smaller than TOUR average.

Total SG: Approach over past 24 Rounds:

1. Will Zalatoris (+27.5) (+5000)
2. Russell Henley (+26.1) (+5500)
3. Viktor Hovland (+22.9) (+1600)
4. Shane Lowry (+20.3) (+4000)
5. Luke List (+19.6) (+15000)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

In match play, driving distance can play a huge factor. Whoever has the furthest drive will have the luxury of seeing what their opponent did with their approach before deciding on which strategy to apply when making their approaches. The greens are firm at Austin Country Club, so playing from the rough or using a longer iron on approaches will cause some issues for golfers.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee over past 24 Rounds:

1. Jon Rahm (+32.2) (+1400)
2. Bryson DeChambeau (+21.6) (+3300)
3. Keith Mitchell (+21.4) (+9000)
4. Cameron Young (+20.8) (+12500)
5. Sergio Garcia (+18.4) (+5500)

3. Strokes Gained: Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists seem to always bring their best game when playing on Pete Dye designs. Golfers' comfort level on the unique layout of the course this week should play a factor this week.

SG: per round on Pete Dye designs over past 24 rounds:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+2.1) (+3300)
2. Paul Casey (+2.1) (+3300)
3. Shane Lowry (+1.7) (+4000)
4. Brian Harman  (+1.7) (+6600)
5. Webb Simpson (+1.7) (+7500)

4. Birdie or Better gained

A unique aspect of match play is the fact that a terrible hole doesn't take you out of the match. If your opponent makes birdie, it doesn't matter if you make a par or a quadruple bogey, you simply lose the hole and move on to the next. Therefore, targeting golfers who make a lot of birdies and force their opponent to match will be a sound strategy this week.

Birdie or Better gained over the past 24 rounds

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+31.0) (+3300)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+30.0) (+1800)
3. Viktor Hovland (+26.4) (+1600)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+24.2) (+2200)
5. Russell Henley (+24.1) (+5500)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Putting is especially important this week as golfers will need to make plenty of pressure-packed putts in the match play setting. Historically, great putters have won this event (Jason Day and Kevin Kisner), and flat stick prowess should prove to be a factor again. 

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) over past 24 rounds

1. Kevin Kisner (+22.9) (+7000)
2. Dustin Johnson (+21.5) (+2200)
3. Patrick Reed (+17.1) (+7000)
4. Christian Bezuidenhout (+14.8) (+8000)
5. Billy Horschel (+14.1) (+3500)

2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (28%), SG: OTT (22%), BOB:Gained (20 %), SG: Pete Dye (15%) and SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) (15%).

1. Viktor Hovland (+1600)
2. Will Zalatoris (+5000)
3. Bryson DeChambeau (+3300)
4. Scottie Scheffler (+1800)
5. Jon Rahm (+1400)
6. Justin Thomas (+1400)
7. Corey Conners (+6600)
8. Keegan Bradley (+10000)
9. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)
10. Dustin Johnson (+2200)

2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Outright Bets

Jordan Spieth (+3500):

If there was ever a week where drilling long putts would be one of the most important factors, this may be the one. A hot putter has propelled a handful of golfers to victory in this event, and Spieth is due to have one of his magical weeks. While that may not be the analytical approach that readers may desire, it never is with Jordan Spieth. When he wins an event, it will be due to his predictably unpredictable short game.

While it’s true that Spieth hasn’t had a week where he has gained an enormous amount of strokes with the putter in a while, there is plenty of reason to believe that this may be the week. His best Strokes Gained: Putting performance in both 2020 (+8.6) and 2021 (+7.1) came at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. There’s no denying that the former Texas Longhorn loves these Bermuda greens in the Texas area.

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Tommy Fleetwood (+5000):

We are finally starting to see Tommy Fleetwood round into the form that made him a fan favorite throughout the course of his career. At THE PLAYERS, he gained 8.0 strokes from tee to green, which was the most he’s gained in over a year (Honda Classic 2020 +9.0). The Englishman followed up the performance with a solid showing at the Valspar Championship where he finished in a tie for 16th.

Fleetwood has excelled in match play formats throughout his career. He has a career record of 12-9-3 in singles matches and has won some big ones before. Most will remember his incredible performance in the 2018 Ryder Cup at Le Golf National where he was the second-leading point scorer for the winning side, scoring four points in five matches.

Tommy is still in search of his first victory on American soil, and match play may just be the perfect change of pace for him to get it done.

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Russell Henley (+5000):

The last time we saw Henley, he was gaining an absurd 11.5 strokes on approach at THE PLAYERS Championship. While the statistics may be a bit skewed due to the extreme wave bias that played out, there’s no denying that he was striping his irons. Since the calendar switched to 2022, the 32-year-old hasn't finished outside of the top 32 in any of his seven starts and has three finishes in the top 14.

Henley certainly fits a few trends with two of the past three winners of this event having been Georgia Bulldogs and all of the last three having played college golf in the SEC. After a stretch of poor putting, he’s seemed to turn it around having gained strokes putting in six of his past eight starts. That’s a positive sign heading into match play where he will need to make plenty of putts to contend.

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Sergio Garcia (+5000)

Garcia is 12-7-1 at Austin Country Club and put on a masterful performance last year where he came up just short of making the final four. In singles match play overall, Sergio is 41-32-4, which speaks to his match play prowess and experience.

As evidenced by his great track record at Austin Country Club, Garcia is a perfect fit for the course. He drives the ball long and straight and ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. He really excels on short par 4’s, and there are a handful of them this week that he should take advantage of. He also ranks 14th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Pete Dye designs, which is historically a positive sign for this event.

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Keith Mitchell (+9000)

Mitchell doesn’t have much match play experience, but he does a lot of things well that should make him an ideal fit for Austin Country Club. In the past we have seen golfers who played in the SEC thrive in this event, and Mitchell is a similar type of player with an aggressive mentality.

Bermuda putting is one of the biggest factors for the week, and being able to catch a hot putter is even more important in the match play format. Bermudagrass greens have been Mitchell’s preferred putting surface and should be comfortable for the former Georgia Bulldog.

The 30-year-old comes into the event hot having finished in the top 13 on the leaderboard of four of his past five starts. His driving distance will give him an advantage this week, and he will be a difficult opponent for anyone he draws in Austin.