2023 Masters Odds: Our Favorite Picks, Best Bets for Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, More

After looking at Masters odds across the internet, our betting analysts have found their Masters picks.

Across sportsbooks, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler sit atop the outright board, although Jon Rahm not far behind. Some of our experts are high on the Spaniard, who's looking for his second major.

Check out our staff's Masters preview and best bets below.

Favorite We’re Backing

• Jason Sobel: Jon Rahm
• Chris Murphy: Xander Schauffele
• Matt Vincenzi:  Jon Rahm
• Spencer Aguiar: Rory McIlroy
• Nick Bretwisch: Tony Finau

Best Long Shot

• Sobel: Shane Lowry
• Murphy: Justin Rose
• Vincenzi: Patrick Reed
• Aguiar: Alex Noren
• Bretwisch: Alex Noren

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Biggest Bust

• Sobel: Cameron Smith
• Murphy: Viktor Hovland
• Vincenzi: Max Homa
• Aguiar: Brooks Koepka
• Bretwisch: Cameron Young

Contrarian Player To Target

• Sobel: Patrick Reed
• Murphy: Patrick Reed
• Vincenzi: Shane Lowry
• Aguiar: Matthew Fitzpatrick
• Bretwisch: Tom Kim

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: Everybody loves a longshot to win, but they don’t tend to cash tickets at Augusta National.

Over the past decade, according to the archives at golfodds.com, winners have held average pre-tournament odds of 27.1-1, with the longest being Matsuyama at 60-1. (Yes, even Danny Willett had shortened to 50-1 by tournament week.) That doesn’t mean another Charl Schwartzel – the last Masters winner at a triple-digit price in 2011 – can’t happen, but it does mean that’s an unlikely scenario.

Murphy: Schwartzel in 2011 was the winner at the longest odds over the past 13 years as he went off at triple digits, as Jason mentioned, while no other champions were beyond +6600. We have also only seen one player capture the title at single digit odds as Dustin Johnson did in 2020.

There are plenty of capable players in the mid range from the teens even out to +5000, and that's where I will build a card of four to five players with the hopes they can beat Scheffler, McIlroy and Rahm this week.

Aguiar: There are countless trends we can talk about from a game theory standpoint.

Only Jack Nicklaus has ever won this tournament aged 45 or older. No first-timer has captured the title since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. The list goes on and on when we start discussing corollary tendencies that have proven impactful historically if you want to get yourself across the finish line.

However, one of the areas I continued to go back to when building my model was the combination of greens in regulation percentage and around the green returns. The multiple-tiered layout of this complex can spell disaster for any golfer that finds themselves missing greens and struggling to salvage par once committing those errors.

Our Best Bets

Sobel: Jon Rahm +950 (FanDuel)

Unless we’re in a Tiger-like period of utter domination, the way we answer the question of, “Who’s the best golfer in the world right now?” probably says more about us than them.

Some might simply look at this from a "What have you done for me lately?" perspective, in which case Scheffler is the likely reply. Others might consider it a query of which player wins if they’re all playing their best, which could very well be McIlroy.

Others, however, can view this as a question regarding which player scares you the most to fade – the guy about whom you’ll be kicking yourself if you leave him off the card. For me, that player is Rahm.

Despite three wins already this year, he’s somehow slid down to third on most oddsmakers’ boards, logically behind Scheffler, but perhaps not so logically behind McIlroy, who appeared a bit lost before his third-place finish at the WGC-Match Play.

I’m sure Rahm himself couldn’t care less about this number, so I’m not implying this is some sort of motivational justification. Instead, consider it a nod to the fickle world of golf prognostications, where a player who ranks third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, fourth in approach, 17th around the greens, 12th in putting and – you guessed it – first in strokes gained total can actually offer a modicum of value at a single-digit outright price.

With four top-10s and nothing worse than T-27 in six career Masters starts, Rahm is everything we’re looking for in a potential winner this week.

Pick: Jon Rahm +950

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Murphy: Justin Rose — Top Englishman (+350, BetRivers)

I’ll go off the board a bit with a prop this week since I already laid out my case for my favorite outright bets.

I really like this market and opportunity for Justin Rose. I'm a big fan of his this week thanks to his resurgence in 2023, which started with a win at Pebble Beach and was followed by a top-10 finish at The Players. His victory in February got him back to the Masters, where he has frequently run well with two runner-up finishes and three more top-12s in his last eight appearances.

This market pits him against just four other Englishmen: Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Danny Willett. Rose’s odds are just short of where he is listed for a top-10. In this case, he just needs to better this group.

I like Rose's chances, especially with Fitzpatrick out of form and Hatton's history of frustrations with Augusta National. I’ll look for Rose to be one of the longer odds that I give the potential to contend, and he’ll be my longest outright. For the sake of getting the best bang for our buck, I see this prop as a great opportunity.

Vincenzi: Patrick Cantlay +2000 (BetMGM)

At this point in his career, Cantlay has struggled relative to expectations at majors. In 20 starts at majors as a professional, Cantlay has only finished in the top 10 three times and has failed to get deep into contention at any of them.

However, last year he made some strides with a T14 at the U.S. Open and an eighth-place finish at The Open, which were the last two majors of 2022. Those results are enough for me to take the chance on Cantlay's enormous talent.

In his past 24 rounds, the 31-year-old ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Total and first in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Cantlay's 2023 has been the best he's ever hit the ball with driver, and that will be a major factor at Augusta National.

In his past three starts, he's gained 4.6, 5.6 and 5.8 strokes off the tee respectively. Playing from the fairway is an excellent way to avoid trouble at Augusta, and he has a stellar short game to complement the driving prowess. Cantlay is an excellent putter, and Bentgrass has been his preferred surface throughout his career.

There are a handful of players who can make the case for the best player on Tour without a major, but I believe Cantlay gets the nod. That may change this week, though.

Aguiar: Jason Day (-110) over Cameron Young (FanDuel)

This is a wager that opened on FanDuel at +102 and has moved a handful of points over the past 24 hours. As always, shop around, but we have this super high ceiling mixed with a low floor for Young's potential this week at Augusta.

I understand the intrigue because of a weighted proximity total in my model that grades sixth to mimic the historical data at the track. We also get this high-end off-the-tee return that places fifth.

However, I think most people in the industry are ignoring his short game that has the potential to implode on these tricky green complexes. Young ranked 58th in weighted around-the-green, 72nd in weighted putting, 64th in three-putt avoidance and 73rd in sand save percentage.

Those totals are concerning when we talk about finding safety for a head-to-head matchup.

Pick: Jason Day (-110) over Cameron Young

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Bretwisch: Alex Noren — Top 40 (+115, FanDuel)

I’m riding the recent iron play form for Noren, who has some of the best combined stats in his career of late.

We don’t have a lot of course history that everyone loves to bank on at Augusta, but we do have the best month of mid-long iron play we’ve seen from Noren on the PGA Tour since 2018.

The Swede is known for his short game and that’s what I love most about him at Augusta in 2023. As long as the iron play stays in form, he should walk backwards into the top 40.

Pick: Alex Noren — Top 40 (+115)

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