2023 Shriners Children’s Open First Round Leader Picks: FRL Bets for Tom Hoge, J.T. Poston
Via Getty Images. Pictured: J.T. Poston (left) and Tom Hoge (right).
The PGA Tour is back with the third event of the FedExCup Fall — the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas.
With nearly 35% of approach shots historically coming from 100-150 yards at TPC Summerlin, I’ll be targeting players who can make birdies in bunches while dialing in their short irons and wedges to get to the 8-under range on Thursday.
Find my Shriners Children’s Open first-round leader picks and analysis below.
Shriners Children’s Open FRL Picks
J.T. Poston +4500 (FanDuel)
First Round Tee Time: 7:23 a.m. PT
If I could only bet one player outright this week, it would be J.T. Poston at +3200. He’s playing the best golf of his life as he has recorded top-24 finishes in six of his past seven starts while looking like a top-three putter in the world (I’d have him in my top tier of putters along with Cameron Smith and Denny McCarthy, both of whom aren't in this field).
- Strokes Gained: Putting on Soft Bentgrass greens
- SG: Putting over the past 24 rounds
- SG: Total over the past 24 rounds
- SG: Total at TPC courses
In our Links + Locks Shriners Children’s Open preview, we discussed how TPC Deere Run is a similar course to TPC Summerlin, and Poston won his most recent PGA Tour event there in 2022, when he won the John Deere Classic by three strokes.
The big question for Poston is if he can hit enough fairways to make up for his lack of distance off of the tee, as that has held him back at TPC Summerlin in the past.
Poston is 39th in the FedExCup Points List, which means he doesn’t have any incentive to play in the fall. That means he’s choosing to play this week and shouldn’t hold anything back as he’s playing with house money.
We already saw Sahith Theegala, who finished 31st in the FedExCup Points List, win in the FedExCup Fall, and I think Poston has a great chance of doing so by starting off with a low round Thursday.
He’s +4500 to be the first-round leader, and I’d bet him down to +4000.
Tom Hoge +4500 (FanDuel)
First Round Tee Time: 12:24 p.m. PT
TPC Summerlin and last week’s venue, the Country Club of Jackson, both have historically featured about 35% of approach shots from 100-150 yards. I liked Tom Hoge as a FRL last week because of his excellent proximity numbers for that course, so I love him again this week.
Hoge was strong on approach last week (fifth in the field among those who made the cut at 1.40 Strokes Gained per round) as he finished T13 despite losing strokes on the putting greens.
However, Hoge now returns to a course where he has gained strokes on the pure Bentgrass greens in each of the past three years, finishing T24, T14 and T4.
Hoge has elite marks in this field on approach as he is first in Weighted Proximity, which is buoyed by him ranking among the top eight in proximity from both 100-125 yards and 125-150 yards.
We’re looking for golfers who can go low in this market, and Hoge fits this profile as he is fourth in this field in Birdie or Better Percentage.
Given his elite approach play, propensity to make birdies in bunches and strong history on these greens, Hoge is worth a FRL play at 45/1 and I’d bet him to 40/1.
Before placing your bets on Poston and Hoge, make sure to use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code available to new registrants for $200 in bonus bets!
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