The golf world centers its attention on Pinehurst, North Carolina this week for the third men's major championship of the year, and our golf analysts have their 2024 U.S. Open Picks ready.
Our golf betting experts have already peppered the 2024 U.S. Open outright betting board on Monday, and they have bets for four different golfers to win at Pinehurst No. 2, including Will Zalatoris and Collin Morikawa.
Find our favorite 2024 U.S. Open Picks for this week's major championship below.
2024 U.S. Open Picks
Spencer Aguiar: Min Woo Lee +8500 (bet365)
The discussion at the top of the board is fun regarding what to do when comparing Scottie Scheffler (+333), Rory McIlroy (+1300) and Xander Schauffele (+1300) at their respective going rates. I do have a take that you can hear on Links + Locks on our U.S. Open Betting Preview (linked below), but let's save the high-end discussion for another day and highlight a longshot wager to consider.
My model graded a rather hefty 15 people among the top 50 of all seven categories I ran this week. Almost all those golfers are the sub-50-1 golfers with the highest win equity. I wanted to gravitate to that section of the board because of my extreme returns in those areas—however, three players graded outside of that territory whom my math liked in different market iterations.
Two of those golfers whom I decided not to back in the outright market were Byeong Hun An and Dustin Johnson. An carries realistic upside if he can gain above his baseline with the broomstick putter for four days. That said, Min Woo Lee had the best value on the slate when I crunched my numbers.
Lee generated extremely robust returns at Pinehurst, grading fifth in this field when combining Long Iron Proximity + Around the Green, third for Weighted Total Driving and ninth for Expected Scoring at Pinehurst No. 2.
I realize that the profile is going to present a boom-or-bust nature that has a propensity to deliver a result that can land anywhere on the spectrum, but I loved the idea of pairing Lee's upside with the top of the board when shooting for pure win equity.
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Nick Bretwisch: Rory McIlroy +1300 (bet365)
We all know this is likely Scottie Scheffler’s tournament to lose based on the course fit and incredible recent form, but my expected data seems to think this is an inflated number for the best Donald Ross course player in the game right now.
McIlroy is one of the highest hitters of the golf ball, and that will bode well for rock-hard surfaces at Pinehurst this week. With the improved short game and confidence in the putter, McIlroy is surprisingly a somewhat “under-the-radar” play.
I’m usually investing in longshots down the board and wanted to do so again this week. I couldn’t find value in Scheffler at the number in the current 3-1 range, so McIlroy was the next man up and still leaves me room to invest in a few golfers I believe have true win equity in this event.
Matt Gannon: Will Zalatoris 100-1 (FanDuel)
I love the idea of going back to Will Zalatoris this week. As expected, he played well in tough conditions this past week until the final round at Muirfield Village.
More than anything, I love how solid his short game looked in firm and fast conditions. The ball-striking was definitely not up to par, but Pinehurst should set up much better for him in that sense.
The wide driving corridors should free him up to bomb it off the tee, which will help him because sometimes he gets a bit tentative when the fairways are narrow. From there, he can lean into the hot iron play to find success.
Zalatoris played his college golf in this area of the country at Wake Forest and is surely comfortable with these conditions. It very well may be the week for Willy Z to grab that coveted first major at juicy odds of 100-1.
Greg Waddell: Scottie Scheffler +333 (bet365)
I know, I get it. Trust me, I don’t love it either. +333 is a ridiculous premium to pay. It’s barely even logical — except that Scottie Scheffler is playing at the highest level in 20 years.
There is no explaining it anymore, he is that good. He has won every tournament for a month when he has not held a pending felony charge. He finished eighth and second, respectively, when he did have a pending felony charge.
There’s no denying it anymore — the 2024 U.S. Open is Scheffler’s tournament to lose.
As golf bettors, we can and will make compelling arguments for alternatives with good value. I will bet plenty of golfers not named Scottie Scheffler this week and hope they hang around for a few days to provide some hedge opportunities and/or cash outs. However, I’d be lying if I said I expect that to happen.
+333 may be a steal by the time Saturday gets here. Trust the results because Scheffler is in a league of his own.
Tony Sartori: Collin Morikawa +1700 (bet365)
Collin Morikawa is the most likely candidate in this field to take down Scottie Scheffler. He has been battling Scheffler all season while consistently coming just short, which happened again this past weekend at Muirfield Village.
Morikawa had multiple chances on the back nine to take advantage, but the second-place finish was more of a product of him hurting himself rather than Scheffler pulling away. With that said, Morikawa is in tremendous form with three straight top-four finishes, and I think this week is a great opportunity for him to finally knock the door down.
He tied for third at the Masters and tied for fourth at the PGA Championship in his two major championship appearances thus far this season, and Pinehurst No. 2 sets up nicely for him given how it particularly rewards accuracy both off the tee and on approach.
In 2023, Morikawa also tied for second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and tied for sixth at the Tour Championship, two tournaments contested on Donald Ross designs.
